Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) $185.39
Verisk is currently fighting to reclaim its footing, but the technical setup demands patience before committing capital.
52-wk High $306.45
π Investment Snapshot
- Price trades 19.6% above 52-week lows.
- Q1 revenue reached $783M with $1.73 EPS.
- Strong institutional backing from Blackrock and Vanguard.
- Consensus target sits at $220.47, implying 19% upside.
The stock shows strong technical momentum, yet the RSI above 60 suggests we are chasing a move rather than buying a value dip. We prefer waiting for a retest of the $177 level to improve risk-reward.
| π Entry Zone | $177 or below | π Stop-Loss | $168 |
| π Adjust If | A daily close above $190 confirms a breakout. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
Verisk remains a dominant force in data analytics for the insurance sector, maintaining high margins despite broader industrial volatility. The company’s consistent buyback program, totaling $1.6B last quarter, signals managementβs confidence in long-term cash flow generation.
However, the valuation premium remains a sticking point in a high-rate environment. With the 10Y Treasury at 4.57%, paying 28.3x earnings for a slow-growth industrial name carries significant multiple-compression risk if guidance falters.
π€ Does the current 28x multiple accurately price in the risk of decelerating insurance premium growth?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Industrials |
| Industry | Consulting Services |
Open chart on TradingView β
π Price Action & Technicals
Golden Cross
Inside VA
Sell-side Sweep at $184.77
The stock sits above the SMA50 ($177.12), confirming a short-term bullish trend, but it remains well below the SMA200 ($201.7), indicating a long-term downtrend persists. RSI at 62.1 signals we approach overbought territory, limiting immediate upside potential.
The Volume Profile Point of Control at $176.89 acts as a magnet; expect price consolidation here. Liquidity sweeps at $176.63 and $177.35 confirm institutional interest at these levels, reinforcing the $177 support zone.
We see a bearish FVG at $188.18, which likely acts as a ceiling for the current rally. The Technical Confluence Score of 90/100 highlights that while the trend is strong, the proximity to resistance makes this a poor entry point.
Volume remains light at 0.45x the 20-day average, suggesting this rally lacks conviction. Without a volume surge, the stock risks a rejection at the current $185 level.
The divergence between the RSI and the lack of volume underscores our cautious stance. We wait for a retest of the $177 support to align with institutional liquidity.
π€ Would you rather chase the breakout above $190 or wait for a retest of the $177 support?
β Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics | 28.3x |
| SPY | S&P 500 Avg | 21.5x |
| MCO | Moody’s | 32.1x |
| SPGI | S&P Global | 30.5x |
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $783M | $1.73 | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $779M | $1.41 | -22.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $768M | $1.61 | -11.0% |
| Q2 2025 | $773M | $1.81 | +4.6% |
Free Cash Flow remains robust at $0.3B, supporting the $1.6B buyback program.
Earnings growth remains choppy, reflecting the difficult macro environment for consulting services.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- Insurance Data Dominance π’ Upside Surprise β Verisk’s proprietary datasets create a wide moat that competitors struggle to replicate.
- Margin Expansion π‘ Priced In β Cost-cutting initiatives are beginning to reflect in operating margins.
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 11,877 |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 9,014 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANN ELIZABETH | CFO | 2026-06-15 | Purchase | 400 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 5.6% | 2.0 |
β Key Risk Factors
~$1.5B impact
~$0.8B impact
π€ Do you believe the current buyback pace is sustainable given the macro headwinds?
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $275.00 | $220.47 | $185.00 | 17 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | Neutral | $185.00 | 2026-05-19 | Maintained |
Analysts remain bullish, but recent downgrades suggest caution.
Open chart on TradingView β
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- Strong moat in insurance data.
- Aggressive buyback program.
π Base Case
The stock continues to trade within a range, constrained by macro factors.
π» Bear Case
- High P/E ratio in a high-rate environment.
- Weak volume on recent rally.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
Wait for a retest of $177 support before entering.
Avoid adding at current levels; wait for a pullback.
Maintain current position but do not increase exposure.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: Why is the RSI a concern?
At 62.1, the stock is approaching overbought levels, which often precedes a short-term correction.
Q: Is the dividend yield attractive?
At 1.08%, the yield is modest and not a primary driver for income-focused investors.
Q: What is the key level to watch?
$177 is the critical support level where institutional interest has been confirmed.
π New to these terms? P/E Ratio Β· Free Cash Flow Β· Insider Signals Β· Stop-Loss Β· RSI
π Want to verify if this analysis still holds?
π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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