Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) $88.08
Nasdaq is testing critical resistance at the 200-day moving average, leaving investors to decide if this momentum holds or fades.
52-wk High $101.79
📌 Investment Snapshot
- Current price $88.08 sits between 50-day and 200-day MAs.
- Q1 2026 revenue reached $2.14B with $0.91 EPS.
- Strong institutional accumulation evidenced by recent sweeps.
- Consensus target of $106.87 implies 21.3% upside potential.
The stock sits in a precarious spot between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. We require a clearer directional signal before committing capital.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $85.61 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $79.25 |
| 📋 Adjust If | The stock closes decisively above $90.00 on volume exceeding 1.2x the 20-day average. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
Nasdaq has successfully pivoted from a pure exchange operator to a diversified financial technology powerhouse. Recent quarterly performance confirms this shift, with revenue scaling to $2.14B as the firm captures recurring revenue from its software segments.
The primary risk remains the macro environment, specifically the 10Y Treasury yield hovering at 4.57%. High rates pressure valuation multiples, potentially capping upside despite strong operational execution.
🤔 Does the current 26.5x P/E multiple accurately reflect Nasdaq’s transition into a high-margin software firm?
🏢 Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Data & Exchanges |
| Dividend Yield | 1.27% |
📈 Price Action & Technicals
Inside VA
Buy-side Sweep at $81.26 on 2026-06-30
NDAQ currently wrestles with the $88.40 level, which marks the 200-day moving average. A clean break above this line would signal a shift in long-term trend, yet current volume remains muted at 52% of the 20-day average.
The RSI at 62.4 suggests the stock approaches overbought territory without being there yet. This leaves room for further upside, though momentum appears to be cooling.
Anchored VWAP from June 29 sits at $82.88, providing a strong floor for the current move. The Volume Profile Point of Control at $86.86 acts as a magnet, confirming that the current price action is well-supported by historical volume.
Liquidity sweeps at $81.26 and $89.60 indicate active institutional positioning. These levels define the current trading range, and we expect consolidation before a directional breakout.
The confluence score of 100/100 is impressive, but the lack of volume confirms we should wait for a retest of the $85.61 FVG zone before committing capital.
🤔 Would you rather chase the breakout at $89 or wait for the pullback to the $85.61 FVG?
⚖ Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 26.5x |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | 24.1x |
| CME | CME Group | 28.4x |
| SPY | S&P 500 Avg | 22.3x |
💰 Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $2.14B | $0.91 | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.12B | $0.90 | +8.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.96B | $0.73 | -6.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.09B | $0.78 | +1.3% |
Free cash flow remains robust at $0.6B, supporting the ongoing $0.5B buyback program.
Earnings consistency remains a hallmark of the firm, though growth has moderated in recent quarters.
🚀 Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Market Technology Expansion 🟢 Upside Surprise — Continued adoption of SaaS-based market infrastructure solutions.
- Index Licensing 🟡 Priced In — Growth in ETP assets under management drives recurring fee revenue.
🏦 Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Investor AB | 58,382 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 38,169 |
| Wellington Management | 36,278 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMITH BRYAN EVERARD | Officer | 2026-07-01 | Purchase | 3000 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 2.4% | 1.9 |
⚠ Key Risk Factors
~$2B impact
~$0.5B impact
🤔 How should investors weigh the regulatory risk against the steady growth of the SaaS division?
🎯 Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125.00 | $106.87 | $82.00 | 15 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $110.00 | 2026-07-10 | Maintained |
| Raymond James | Outperform | $108.00 | 2026-07-09 | Maintained |
Analysts remain broadly bullish, viewing the current valuation as a discount to long-term potential.
📊 Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
🐂 Bull Case
- Strong recurring revenue growth.
- Successful SaaS transition.
📊 Base Case
Steady execution within the current trading range.
🐻 Bear Case
- Macro headwinds from high rates.
- Regulatory pressure on fees.
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
Let the stock clear the 200-day SMA on higher volume before entering.
Entry zone is too high relative to the recent consolidation.
The fundamental story remains intact; maintain existing positions.
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: Why is the verdict WAIT despite the strong confluence score?
The RSI of 62.4 indicates the stock is not oversold, and we prefer to enter near support levels like the $85.61 FVG rather than chasing resistance.
Q: What is the key technical level to watch?
The 200-day moving average at $88.40 is the primary hurdle for the bulls.
Q: How does the current macro environment affect NDAQ?
The 10Y Treasury yield at 4.57% creates valuation pressure, which limits the upside potential for high-multiple financial stocks.
📖 New to these terms? P/E Ratio · Free Cash Flow · Insider Signals · Stop-Loss · RSI
📊 Want to check the current price action yourself?
📋 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investments carry risk.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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