Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) $518.34
Lockheed Martin is currently caught in a technical vice, squeezed between a looming earnings report and a significant 25% retreat from its yearly highs.
52-wk High $692.0
📌 Investment Snapshot
- Trading at $518.34 with a 25.1x P/E ratio and 2.68% dividend yield.
- Latest Q1 revenue of $18.02B and EPS of $6.47 showed resilient margins.
- Upcoming July 23 earnings serve as the primary catalyst for a trend reversal.
- Consensus target of $608.42 offers a 17.4% margin of safety from current levels.
⏳ WAIT
LMT is currently stabilizing near its Anchored VWAP of $517.09 after a sharp 12% quarterly correction. The stock faces immediate resistance at the SMA50, requiring a high-volume catalyst to break the bearish momentum.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $510.00 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $485.00 |
| 📋 Adjust If | Q2 earnings miss revenue targets by more than 3%. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
The narrative for Lockheed Martin has shifted from pure growth to defensive consolidation over the last 90 days. While the F-35 program remains a cornerstone, supply chain bottlenecks and shifting Pentagon priorities have cooled the momentum seen in early 2025. Institutional players like State Street and Blackrock maintain massive positions, yet the recent 3-month return of -11.9% suggests a period of price discovery is underway.
The primary risk lies in the $-0.3B negative free cash flow reported in the latest quarter, which could signal temporary capital expenditure spikes or payment timing issues. If the July 23 report fails to show a path back to positive FCF, the 2.68% dividend yield may not be enough to hold the $500 floor. Can Lockheed’s missile defense backlog offset the plateauing demand for legacy airframes in a high-rate environment?
How much of the current 25% discount from highs is a reflection of actual fundamental decay versus simple sector rotation?
🤔 How much of the current 25% discount from highs is a reflection of actual fundamental decay versus simple sector rotation?
🏢 Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense |
| Employees | 122,000 |
| Headquarters | Bethesda, MD |
Open chart on TradingView →
📈 Price Action & Technicals
Dead Cross
Inside VA
Buy-side Sweep at $513.81 on 2026-07-15
LMT is currently battling the SMA50 ($519.73), which has acted as a ceiling for the past two weeks. The stock remains below its SMA200 ($537.26), confirming that the primary intermediate trend is still bearish.
The RSI at 56.9 signals a lack of conviction from either side, while the MACD remains trapped in a bearish crossover. The ADX of 13.2 reveals a trendless environment where price action is likely to remain choppy until earnings.
Price is currently hovering exactly at the Volume Profile Point of Control ($518.95), indicating this is the ‘fair value’ where most trading has occurred. This level often acts as a magnet, preventing clean breakouts without a significant news driver.
Recent liquidity sweeps at $513.81 suggest that institutional buyers are defending the $510-$515 zone. However, the unfilled bearish FVG between $525.01 and $531.77 will likely attract sellers on any relief rally.
Historically, LMT tends to consolidate into earnings; the current 0.2x volume ratio confirms that the ‘smart money’ is sitting on its hands. Expect a volatile expansion once the July 23 numbers hit the tape.
⚖ Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 25.1x |
| RTX | RTX Corp | 28.4x |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | 29.2x |
| GD | General Dynamics | 22.5x |
| SPY | S&P 500 Avg | 21.4x |
💰 Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $18.02B | $6.47 | +4.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | $20.32B | $5.82 | +3.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | $18.61B | $6.98 | +5.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | $18.16B | $1.46 | -12.0% |
Free Cash Flow turned negative at $-0.3B in the latest quarter, a sharp departure from historical norms.
Lockheed’s revenue has shown seasonal strength in Q4, but the Q1 dip to $18.02B suggests a slowing pace of deliveries. Investors should watch for a rebound in the F-35 delivery schedule to justify the current 25x earnings multiple.
🚀 Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Hypersonic Missile Expansion 🟢 Upside Surprise — Increased R&D funding for the Conventional Prompt Strike program could drive high-margin revenue.
- F-35 TR-3 Software Maturity 🟡 Priced In — Resolution of software delays is critical for unlocking withheld payments from the Pentagon.
- European Defense Spending 🟢 Upside Surprise — Sustained demand from NATO allies for missile defense systems provides a long-term backlog tailwind.
🤔 Will the upcoming earnings call reveal a definitive fix for the F-35 delivery delays, or is this a multi-year headwind?
🏦 Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| State Street Corporation | 32,555 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 17,832 |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 14,065 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HILL STEPHANIE C | Officer | 2026-06-11 | Purchase | 368 |
| CAHILL TIMOTHY S | Officer | 2026-03-11 | Purchase | 4620 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 1.8% | 2.6 |
⚠ Key Risk Factors
~$2B impact
~$1.5B impact
🎯 Guidance & Wall Street View
Management previously forecasted 2026 revenue in the range of $70B-$72B, contingent on F-35 delivery acceleration.
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $756.00 | $608.42 | $487.00 | 19 | Hold |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Hold | $590 | 2026-07-13 | Maintained |
| Citigroup | Buy | $640 | 2026-07-01 | Upgrade |
Analysts are cautiously optimistic but have largely moved to the sidelines ahead of the Q2 print, citing valuation concerns at 25x P/E.
Open chart on TradingView →
📊 Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
🐂 Bull Case
- Successful F-35 TR-3 rollout triggers massive cash infusion.
- Geopolitical tensions drive emergency orders for PAC-3 missiles.
📊 Base Case
LMT trades sideways as it digests recent gains and waits for FCF normalization.
🐻 Bear Case
- Continued negative FCF leads to a dividend growth pause.
- Pentagon pivots funding toward cheaper drone swarms over manned jets.
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
The stock is sandwiched between the SMA50 and a bearish FVG. Stay on the sidelines until LMT reclaims $525 on high volume or dips to the $509 bullish FVG for a better risk/reward entry.
Maintain current positions but avoid adding until the July 23 earnings report confirms a return to positive free cash flow. The 80/100 technical score is strong, but macro headwinds are persistent.
For those with a 3-year horizon, the current 25% discount from highs represents a reasonable entry point into a dominant defense franchise with a growing 2.68% yield.
If you’re interested in the Industrials sector, also read:
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: When is Lockheed Martin's next earnings date?
Lockheed Martin is scheduled to report its Q2 2026 earnings on July 23, 2026.
Q: Is LMT's dividend safe despite negative cash flow?
While the $-0.3B FCF is a concern, LMT’s strong balance sheet and massive backlog typically support dividend continuity during temporary spending spikes.
Q: What is the key technical level to watch for LMT?
The Anchored VWAP at $517.09 is the critical support level; a sustained break below this could lead to a test of the $487 low.
📖 New to these terms? P/E Ratio · Free Cash Flow · Insider Signals · Stop-Loss · RSI
📊 How has the stock moved since this analysis?
📋 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Defense sector stocks are subject to significant political and budgetary risks.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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