Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR) $78.85
Ingersoll Rand is flashing a massive 10% dividend yield while sitting 22% below its highs, but a bearish technical gap stands directly in the way of a recovery.
52-wk High $100.96
📌 Investment Snapshot
- Current price of $78.85 trades at a steep 52.2x P/E, reflecting high growth expectations despite recent volatility.
- Latest Q1 2026 revenue of $1.85B and EPS of $0.49 show a sequential decline from the holiday quarter.
- A massive 10% dividend yield provides a significant floor for long-term income seekers.
- Wall Street consensus maintains a $93.54 target, implying nearly 19% upside from current levels.
IR is currently trapped between a bullish recovery from $75 support and a stubborn bearish Fair Value Gap at $78.96. While the 100/100 Technical Confluence Score is impressive, the price remains below the 200-day moving average.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $76.50 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $72.80 |
| 📋 Adjust If | Price closes above $81.50 on high volume. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
Over the last 90 days, Ingersoll Rand has transitioned from a momentum darling to a value-recovery play. The stock shed over 20% of its value as industrial demand softened, yet management’s aggressive buyback program—totaling $0.1B last quarter—signals internal confidence. The market is now weighing the 10% dividend yield against a decelerating top-line growth profile.
The primary risk centers on the 52.2x P/E ratio, which sits nearly double the industry average for specialty machinery. If the 10Y Treasury yield remains sticky at 4.55%, this valuation premium faces significant compression risk. Can IR justify a 50x multiple if revenue growth fails to reclaim the $2B quarterly benchmark?
🤔 Does a 10% dividend yield compensate you for the risk of a valuation reset in a high-rate environment?
🏢 Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Industrials |
| Industry | Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| CEO | Vicente Reynal |
| Dividend Yield | 10.00% |
📈 Price Action & Technicals
Inside VA
Buy-side Sweep at $76.11 on 2026-07-08
The technical landscape for IR is a study in contradiction. While the stock has rallied 11.9% over the last month, it remains pinned below the SMA200 at $81.37. This moving average acts as a psychological ceiling that bulls must shatter to confirm a trend reversal.
RSI currently sits at a neutral 53.0, suggesting that the recent bounce has neither reached overbought territory nor exhausted its current energy. However, the ADX at 39.5 signals a strong existing trend, which in this case remains the broader 3-month decline. The MACD is lagging the price action, failing to provide a clear crossover signal.
Anchored VWAP from the May low sits at $75.41, providing a solid floor that recently held during the July 8th liquidity sweep. This level aligns with the SMA50 ($75.19), creating a high-confluence support zone. Buyers are clearly defending the mid-70s with conviction.
Volume Profile reveals a Point of Control (POC) at $79.24, which is exactly where the current rally is stalling. This ‘high volume node’ represents a price where significant trading occurred previously, acting as a magnet and a hurdle. A clean break above $80 is required to target the upper Value Area at $98.
History suggests that when IR trades between its SMA50 and SMA200, it enters a period of consolidation. Expect choppy price action within the $75 to $81 range until a fundamental catalyst forces a breakout. The unfilled bearish FVG at $77.96 is currently being tested; failure to close above it would signal a return to the $75 support.
⚖ Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| IR | Ingersoll Rand Inc. | 52.2x |
| S&P 500 | Market Average | 22.5x |
| DOV | Dover Corp | 19.8x |
| AME | AMETEK, Inc. | 28.4x |
| TT | Trane Technologies | 31.2x |
💰 Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.85B | $0.49 | -2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.09B | $0.67 | +4.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.96B | $0.61 | +3.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.89B | -$0.29 | -115% |
Free Cash Flow remains stable at $0.2B, supporting the massive dividend payout and $0.1B in quarterly share repurchases.
Revenue peaked in late 2025 and has since faced headwinds from a cooling industrial sector. The negative EPS in Q2 2025 was a one-time outlier, but the subsequent recovery has been slow. Investors should watch for a return to $2B+ revenue to justify the current valuation.
🚀 Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Energy Efficiency Retrofits 🟢 Upside Surprise — Increasing global regulations on industrial emissions drive demand for IR’s high-efficiency compressor systems.
- Aftermarket Services 🟡 Priced In — Recurring revenue from maintenance contracts now accounts for a larger portion of the margin profile.
- M&A Integration 🟢 Upside Surprise — Successful folding of recent smaller acquisitions into the specialty machinery segment could boost EPS by $0.10.
🏦 Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | 31,237 |
| Capital Research Global Investors | 29,469 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 29,297 |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 24,360 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Reynal | CEO | 2026-04-13 | Purchase | 30,492 |
| Vikram Kini | CFO | 2026-02-27 | Purchase | 3,597 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 4.8% | 3.8 |
⚠ Key Risk Factors
~$6B impact
~$1.5B impact
🤔 If revenue growth remains flat, how long will the market tolerate a P/E that is 2x the sector average?
🎯 Guidance & Wall Street View
Management has focused on operational excellence and margin expansion rather than aggressive top-line guidance for the remainder of 2026.
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115.00 | $93.54 | $80.00 | 13 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | $88.00 | 2026-06-03 | Maintained |
| Citigroup | Buy | $102.00 | 2026-04-30 | Maintained |
| Barclays | Overweight | $98.00 | 2026-04-30 | Maintained |
Analysts remain broadly bullish with an 18.6% upside target, though recent ratings from Morgan Stanley suggest a more cautious ‘Equal-Weight’ stance as the stock battles macro headwinds.
📊 Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
🐂 Bull Case
- 10% dividend yield attracts massive institutional support.
- Successful break above SMA200 ($81.37) triggers a short-covering rally.
📊 Base Case
IR continues to trade within a wide $72-$85 range as it digests its high valuation.
🐻 Bear Case
- Revenue continues to slide below $1.8B quarterly.
- Loss of $75 support leads to a retest of 52-week lows at $68.
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
Do not chase the current +2.3% move. Wait for a rejection at the $79.24 POC or a successful backtest of the $76.11 liquidity sweep level before entering.
Maintain current positions to collect the 10% yield. The Technical Confluence Score of 100 suggests the bottom is likely in, but momentum is not yet strong enough for new capital.
Accumulate on dips below $76. The combination of CEO buying and a double-digit yield makes this a compelling ‘income with growth’ play for a 3-year horizon.
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: Is the 10% dividend yield sustainable?
With $0.2B in quarterly free cash flow and a stable balance sheet, the dividend appears covered, though payout ratios are tightening.
Q: What is the most important technical level to watch?
The SMA200 at $81.37 is the ‘line in the sand.’ Closing above this level would shift the long-term trend from bearish to bullish.
Q: Why is the P/E ratio so high compared to peers?
Investors are pricing in a significant recovery in industrial margins and the high-growth potential of IR’s specialty machinery segment.
📖 New to these terms? P/E Ratio · Free Cash Flow · Insider Signals · Stop-Loss · RSI
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📋 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Ingersoll Rand’s high valuation and industrial exposure carry inherent risks.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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