Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) $416.23
Elevance Health is knocking on the door of its $427.64 peak, but a recent liquidity sweep and overbought technicals suggest the momentum may be hitting a ceiling.
52-wk High $427.64
π Investment Snapshot
- Trading at $416.23 (17.6x P/E) following a massive 34.2% three-month rally.
- Q1 2026 revenue hit $50.18B with a strong $8.00 EPS print.
- Institutional backing remains heavy with Blackrock and Vanguard holding 34M+ shares.
- Consensus target of $431.48 offers limited 3.7% immediate upside from current levels.
ELV has surged 34% in 90 days and now sits less than 3% from its 52-week high. While fundamentals are robust, the stock is technically extended and lacks the 15% upside required for a fresh Buy rating.
| π Entry Zone | $395.00 or below | π Stop-Loss | $378.00 |
| π Adjust If | a break above $428 occurs on high volume, signaling a new leg up. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
The narrative around Elevance has shifted from recovery to premium execution over the last 90 days. Management successfully navigated the Medicaid redetermination cycle, evidenced by the stable $50B+ quarterly revenue run rate. This stability has invited massive institutional inflows, pushing the stock well above its 200-day moving average.
However, the primary risk involves the 10Y Treasury yield sitting at 4.57%, which creates a valuation headwind for defensive yield-payers. If the yield climbs toward 4.8%, ELV’s 1.65% dividend becomes less attractive to income-seeking funds. Can Elevance maintain its 17x multiple if risk-free rates continue to climb?
π€ Can Elevance maintain its 17x multiple if risk-free rates continue to climb?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Industry | Healthcare Plans |
| Dividend Yield | 1.65% |
| EPS (TTM) | $23.60 |
Open chart on TradingView β
π Price Action & Technicals
Golden Cross
Outside VA
Sell-side Sweep at $427.19 on 2026-07-09
ELV is currently trading significantly above its SMA50 ($394.71) and SMA200 ($344.69), indicating a strong but potentially overextended bullish trend. The price is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band ($426.3), suggesting limited room for immediate upside without a period of consolidation.
The RSI at 63.8 confirms that while the bulls are in control, the stock is no longer in the ‘value’ zone. The MACD remains in a golden cross state, yet the narrowing gap between the MACD and signal line hints at a possible momentum peak.
A critical Sell-side Sweep occurred at $427.19 on July 9, which effectively rejected the price at the 52-week high. This suggests institutional profit-taking is active at these elevated levels.
The Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) sits way down at $331.17, leaving a massive ‘air pocket’ below the current price. This lack of recent high-volume support makes the stock vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if sentiment shifts.
Historically, when ELV trades at a 20%+ premium to its anchored VWAP ($333.65), it tends to revert toward the SMA50. We expect a drift back toward the $391-$414 Bullish FVG zone before the next sustainable leg higher.
β Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | Elevance Health | 17.6x |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group | 19.2x |
| CVS | CVS Health | 11.4x |
| CI | The Cigna Group | 13.8x |
| SPY | S&P 500 Avg | 21.2x |
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $50.18B | $8.00 | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $49.75B | $2.56 | -1.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.71B | $5.32 | +1.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $49.78B | $7.72 | +2.1% |
Latest quarterly Free Cash Flow reached $4.1B, supporting $1.1B in share buybacks.
Elevance continues to demonstrate revenue resilience, maintaining a $50B quarterly floor despite regulatory shifts. The Q1 EPS of $8.00 was a significant beat, showcasing improved medical loss ratios (MLR) and operational efficiency.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- Carelon Expansion π’ Upside Surprise β The health services division is scaling rapidly, diversifying income away from pure insurance premiums.
- Medicaid Stabilization π‘ Priced In β Post-redetermination enrollment is stabilizing, allowing for more predictable actuarial modeling.
- Aggressive Buybacks π‘ Priced In β The $1.1B quarterly buyback program provides a consistent floor for EPS growth.
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 19,887 |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 14,345 |
| State Street Corp | 10,288 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENCZEK RONALD W | Officer | 2026-06-12 | Purchase | 369 |
| DIXON ROBERT L JR | Director | 2026-06-11 | Purchase | 151 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 3.1% | 3.3 |
β Key Risk Factors
~$1.2B impact
Multiple compression
π€ Will the Carelon segment grow fast enough to offset potential Medicare Advantage margin compression?
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
Management remains confident in their long-term adjusted EPS growth target of 12-15%.
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $498 | $431.48 | $331 | 21 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | $431 | 2026-07-09 | Maintained |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | $450 | 2026-07-07 | Maintained |
While the consensus remains a ‘Buy’, recent price action has eaten up most of the near-term upside, leading to more cautious ‘Sector Perform’ notes.
Open chart on TradingView β
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- Carelon services revenue exceeds expectations, driving margin expansion.
- Aggressive share repurchases accelerate EPS growth beyond 15%.
π Base Case
ELV trades sideways to slightly up as it digests recent gains and waits for the next earnings catalyst.
π» Bear Case
- Regulatory pressure on PBMs impacts the pharmacy services segment.
- Higher-than-expected medical utilization rates in the Medicaid block.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
The recent sell-side sweep at $427.19 signals a local top. Wait for a pullback to the SMA50 near $395 or the unfilled FVG at $391 before entering.
Your original thesis remains intact, but current prices offer a poor risk/reward for new capital. Maintain your position and set a trailing stop at $380.
ELV is a high-quality compounder, but the 17.6x P/E is rich relative to historical averages. Accumulate on dips toward the $375 level.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: Is Elevance Health overvalued at $416?
At 17.6x P/E, it is trading near its fair value. While not ‘cheap,’ it is reasonably priced compared to UnitedHealth (19.2x).
Q: What is the next major catalyst for ELV?
The Q2 2026 earnings report in late July will be the primary driver of the next major price move.
Q: Why did the stock drop today?
The 0.99% dip is likely healthy consolidation after failing to break the $427 resistance level on July 9.
π New to these terms? P/E Ratio Β· Free Cash Flow Β· Insider Signals Β· Stop-Loss Β· RSI
π For real-time updates and advanced charting tools,
π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author has no position in ELV at the time of writing.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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