Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) $367.41
Analog Devices is currently caught in a technical vice, wedged between a long-term bullish trend and a sharp short-term correction that has wiped out 17% of its value since the peak.
52-wk High $445.91
📌 Investment Snapshot
- Trading at $367.41 with a 54.7x P/E, reflecting a significant growth premium.
- Latest Q2 Revenue of $3.62B and EPS of $2.41 shows sequential recovery.
- Institutional support remains massive with Blackrock and Vanguard holding 15% combined.
- Wall Street consensus target of $457.73 implies 24.6% potential upside.
⏳ WAIT
ADI is currently showing bearish momentum with the price trending toward the SMA200 while RSI remains neutral. The upcoming earnings on August 19th create a high-volatility barrier that makes entry risky today.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $330 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $305 |
| 📋 Adjust If | reclaims $398 (SMA50) on high volume | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
Over the last 90 days, Analog Devices has transitioned from a momentum darling to a defensive play as the semiconductor cycle matures. While revenue grew from $3.16B to $3.62B in the most recent quarter, the stock has struggled to digest its 52-week high of $445.
The primary risk remains the elevated P/E ratio of 54.7x in a high-rate environment with the 10Y Treasury at 4.74%. If the August 19th earnings report shows any deceleration in industrial or automotive demand, the valuation could contract toward the $307 Point of Control.
Does the current 17% discount from highs represent a margin of safety, or is the market repricing ADI for a lower-growth reality?
🤔 Does the current 17% discount from highs represent a margin of safety, or is the market repricing ADI for a lower-growth reality?
🏢 Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Dividend Yield | 1.20% |
| CEO | Vincent T. Roche |
Open chart on TradingView →
📈 Price Action & Technicals
Dead Cross
Inside VA
Buy-side sweep at $366.72 on 2026-07-30
The price is currently sandwiched between the SMA50 at $397.41 and the SMA200 at $329.98. This gap suggests a lack of clear trend direction in the intermediate term.
RSI at 39.5 signals mild weakness, but the MACD death cross confirms that bears currently control the tape. The ADX of 30.0 indicates that this downward trend is gaining strength rather than exhausting.
The stock is trading well above its Anchored VWAP of $319.64, which historically acts as a magnet during deep corrections. We expect a test of this level if the $357 Bollinger Band floor fails to hold.
Recent liquidity sweeps at $366 and $371 reveal institutional ‘fishing’ for buy orders, yet the volume ratio of 0.89x shows a lack of conviction from major players. Three unfilled bearish FVGs above $386 will act as heavy resistance on any relief rally.
Historically, ADI tends to see increased volatility 14 days prior to earnings. With the report due on August 19th, the current price action suggests a ‘wait and see’ approach from the smart money.
⚖ Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| ADI | Analog Devices | 54.7x |
| TXN | Texas Instruments | 31.2x |
| MCHP | Microchip Tech | 28.5x |
| NXPI | NXP Semi | 24.1x |
| SPX | S&P 500 Avg | 22.4x |
💰 Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.62B | $2.41 | +25.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.16B | $1.70 | +9.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.08B | $1.60 | +6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.88B | $1.05 | -4.2% |
ADI generated $0.7B in Free Cash Flow last quarter, which was entirely offset by $0.8B in share buybacks. This aggressive capital return policy supports the stock price but limits liquidity for R&D expansion.
Revenue has shown a clear upward trajectory over the last four quarters, recovering from a cyclical trough in mid-2025. However, the market is now questioning if the 25% YoY growth seen in Q2 is sustainable or a one-time inventory restock.
🚀 Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Industrial Automation 2.0 🟢 Upside Surprise — Integration of AI at the edge is driving demand for high-precision analog sensors.
- EV Power Management 🟡 Priced In — Continued shift toward 800V architectures in electric vehicles benefits ADI’s BMS solutions.
- Inventory Normalization 🟡 Priced In — Channel inventories are reaching healthy levels, potentially leading to more predictable order flows.
🤔 Can ADI’s industrial segment growth outpace the valuation compression caused by rising interest rates?
🏦 Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 43,112 |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 31,739 |
| State Street Corp | 23,058 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent T. Roche | CEO | 2026-07-01 | Sale | 20,000 |
| Martin Cotter | Officer | 2026-06-02 | Sale | 35,188 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 2.4% | 2.0 |
⚠ Key Risk Factors
~$20B impact
~$1.2B impact
~$800M impact
🎯 Guidance & Wall Street View
Management has signaled a cautious but optimistic outlook for H2 2026, focusing on margin expansion through high-performance analog products.
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $550.00 | $457.73 | $365.00 | 30 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | Overweight | $480 | 2026-07-14 | Maintained |
| TD Cowen | Buy | $465 | 2026-07-13 | Maintained |
Analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish despite the recent price slide, viewing the dip as a correction rather than a trend reversal.
Open chart on TradingView →
📊 Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
🐂 Bull Case
- Dominant market share in high-performance analog ensures pricing power.
- Aggressive buybacks provide a floor for EPS growth.
📊 Base Case
ADI trades sideways as it digests its high valuation and waits for the next industrial cycle leg.
🐻 Bear Case
- Multiple contraction leads to a retest of the $307 Point of Control.
- Earnings miss on August 19 triggers a break below SMA200.
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
The MACD is in a bearish trend and the stock is below its SMA50. Wait for a bounce off the SMA200 ($330) or a reclaim of $398 before entering.
With earnings just 17 days away and a Technical Confluence Score of 70 being offset by poor momentum, the risk-reward is unfavorable at $367.
The fundamental story of ADI as an analog powerhouse remains intact. Continue holding but defer new purchases until the post-earnings volatility subsides.
If you’re interested in the Technology sector, also read:
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: When is the next Analog Devices earnings date?
ADI is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings on August 19, 2026.
Q: Is ADI stock overvalued at a 54x P/E?
Historically, yes. It is trading at a significant premium to peers like Texas Instruments (31x), requiring high growth to justify the price.
Q: What is the key support level for ADI?
The most critical support level is the 200-day moving average (SMA200) currently sitting at $329.98.
📖 New to these terms? P/E Ratio · Free Cash Flow · Insider Signals · Stop-Loss · RSI
📊 Want to verify if this analysis still holds?
📋 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author has no position in ADI at the time of writing.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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