Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) $102.03
Wynn Resorts, a titan in the luxury gaming space, currently trades at $102.03, presenting a compelling 39% upside to its consensus target, yet technical signals advise patience before making a move.
52-wk High $134.72
π Investment Snapshot
- π° Wynn Resorts trades at $102.03, a 24.3% discount from its 52-week high, with a P/E of 32.49x.
- π The company reported strong Q4 2025 revenue of $1.87B and EPS of $0.82, demonstrating consistent growth.
- π A key catalyst involves the ongoing recovery in Macau and robust demand for luxury experiences in Las Vegas.
- π― Analysts maintain a ‘Strong Buy’ consensus with a mean target of $141.83, implying a significant 39.0% upside.
WYNN currently sits at $102.03, below its key moving averages, yet its RSI signals neutrality, not oversold conditions. While the technical confluence score hits the ‘moderate’ threshold at 60/100, the absence of an oversold RSI prevents a high-conviction ‘Buy’ call at this precise moment.
| π Entry Zone | $98.00 – $100.00 | π Stop-Loss | $95.00 |
| π Adjust If | Consider adjusting if WYNN breaks above the SMA50 at $107.03 on strong volume, or if it decisively breaches $96.00 to the downside. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
Wynn Resorts finds itself at an interesting juncture. Over the past three months, the stock has shed 15%, despite a backdrop of solid quarterly earnings and a generally positive market sentiment for luxury travel. This recent pullback has brought the stock closer to key support levels and within a range that has historically attracted institutional interest, as evidenced by recent buy-side liquidity sweeps.
However, the primary risk to this thesis remains the sensitivity to global economic shifts. A significant slowdown in consumer discretionary spending, particularly from high-net-worth individuals, could directly impact Wynn’s revenue streams in both Macau and Las Vegas. Furthermore, any unexpected regulatory changes in Macau could introduce substantial uncertainty, potentially derailing the recovery narrative that underpins much of the analyst optimism.
π€ Given the recent pullback, are you confident that the underlying demand for luxury gaming and hospitality remains resilient enough to absorb potential macroeconomic headwinds?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Wynn Resorts, Limited |
| Ticker / Exchange | WYNN / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Consumer Cyclical / Resorts & Casinos |
| CEO | Craig Scott Billings |
| Founded / HQ | 2002 / Las Vegas, Nevada |
π Price Action & Technicals
Golden Cross
Inside VA
Buy-side sweep at $99.18 on March 30, 2026, indicating demand at lower prices.
WYNN’s price action reveals a stock struggling to find upward momentum, trading decisively below both its 50-day ($107.03) and 200-day ($114.60) simple moving averages. This alignment confirms a short-to-medium term bearish trend, with these levels now acting as significant overhead resistance. The stock’s current position at $102.03 places it just above the middle Bollinger Band ($100.94), suggesting a potential attempt to stabilize after recent declines.
The RSI at 53.2 signals a neutral momentum, neither oversold nor overbought, which means a strong bounce from extreme conditions is not imminent. However, the MACD has crossed above its signal line, indicating a potential shift in short-term momentum towards the bullish side. The ADX at 18.9, with +DI (26.2) notably above -DI (19.2), suggests that while the overall trend lacks strong conviction, buyers currently hold a slight edge.
From a smart money perspective, WYNN trades below its Anchored VWAP from April 2025 at $105.98, a level that often acts as a magnet or resistance point for institutional capital. The current price sits at the lower boundary of the Volume Profile's Value Area ($100.73 – $128.30), suggesting that this zone could offer some support, but also highlights the significant volume traded at higher prices, particularly around the Point of Control (POC) at $124.47.
Recent liquidity sweeps paint a nuanced picture: two buy-side sweeps at $99.18 and $96.37 signal institutional accumulation at lower price points, while a sell-side sweep at $104.60 preceded the current consolidation. The volume ratio, running at 74% of the 20-day average, indicates reduced trading activity, often typical during consolidation phases. The presence of an open bullish FVG at $98.27-$101.00 suggests a potential target for price to fill, aligning with recent buy-side interest.
π€ With WYNN trading below its long-term moving averages and the Anchored VWAP, what specific technical catalyst would convince you that buyers have truly regained control?
β Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | 32.49x |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp. | 33.15x |
| MGM | MGM Resorts International | 19.87x |
| PENN | Penn Entertainment, Inc. | 17.22x |
| S&P 500 | Index Average | 21.0x |
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.87B | $0.82 | +9.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.83B | $0.85 | +7.0% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.74B | $0.64 | +2.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.70B | $0.69 | +0.0% |
Wynn Resorts generated $0.3B in Free Cash Flow in its latest quarter, demonstrating healthy operational efficiency. The company did not report any share buybacks, suggesting a focus on reinvestment or debt management, while maintaining a modest dividend yield of 0.98%.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- Macau Recovery & Expansion π’ Upside Surprise β Macau continues its post-pandemic recovery, with visitor numbers steadily increasing and gaming revenues rebounding. Wynn’s significant presence there positions it to capitalize on this resurgence, especially with potential for further infrastructure development and tourism incentives.
- Las Vegas Convention & Entertainment Demand π‘ Priced In β Las Vegas remains a robust market, driven by strong convention bookings and high-end leisure travel. Wynn’s luxury properties, including Encore Boston Harbor, benefit from sustained demand for premium experiences and entertainment, supporting higher average daily rates.
- Operational Efficiency & Margin Expansion π’ Upside Surprise β Management’s focus on cost controls and optimizing property performance has led to improved operating margins. Continued discipline in this area could translate into stronger bottom-line growth and increased free cash flow generation.
π€ Given the inherent volatility of the Macau market, how much weight should investors place on its recovery versus the more stable, albeit mature, Las Vegas segment?
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | 9,542 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | 9,002 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 5,491 |
| Barrow, Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss, LLC | 3,680 |
| State Street Corporation | 3,015 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLINGS CRAIG SCOTT | Chief Executive Officer | Jan 7, 2026 | Sale | 70,906 |
| CAMERON-DOE JULIE | Chief Financial Officer | Jan 7, 2026 | Sale | 16,952 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 3.4 |
β Key Risk Factors
~$1B revenue impact
~$500M revenue impact
~100bps margin compression
π€ Considering the high interest rate environment and Wynn’s debt, how much flexibility does management truly have to pursue growth initiatives or return capital to shareholders?
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $161.0 | $141.83 | $118.0 | 18 | Strong Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Feb 25, 2026 | Maintains | |
| UBS | Buy | Feb 23, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Feb 17, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Stifel | Buy | Feb 13, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Feb 13, 2026 | Maintains |
The overwhelming ‘Strong Buy’ consensus from 18 analysts, with a mean target of $141.83, underscores significant confidence in Wynn's future performance and its ability to capitalize on market recoveries. This collective optimism suggests a belief that the current price offers a compelling entry point for long-term investors.
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- Robust recovery in Macau and sustained demand in Las Vegas drive revenue and EBITDA growth beyond current expectations.
- Successful execution of new projects or expansions, coupled with effective cost management, leads to significant margin expansion.
π Base Case
Our base case assumes a continued, albeit gradual, recovery in Macau, coupled with stable performance in Las Vegas and Boston. We project steady revenue growth and modest margin improvements, aligning with current analyst consensus. This scenario implies a fair value of $140, reflecting the company’s strong brand and market positioning.
π» Bear Case
- Unexpected regulatory headwinds in Macau or a severe global economic downturn significantly impacts discretionary spending and travel.
- Increased competition or operational missteps lead to market share loss and inability to manage debt effectively in a rising rate environment.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
Swing traders should wait for a clear break above $104.74 (upper Bollinger Band) or a dip into the bullish FVG zone of $98.27-$101.00 with confirmation of buying pressure. Target a quick bounce to $107-$110, with a tight stop below $97.00.
Position investors should stay on the sidelines for now, but monitor for a retest of the $98.00-$100.00 area, which aligns with recent buy-side sweeps and a bullish FVG. Consider scaling in if this level holds with increasing volume, targeting a move back towards the SMA200 at $114.60.
Long-term investors already in WYNN should hold their positions, as the fundamental growth drivers in Macau and Las Vegas remain intact, supported by strong analyst consensus. New long-term entries should await a more favorable technical setup, ideally below $100, to optimize risk-reward.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: Why is WYNN trading below its moving averages despite positive analyst sentiment?
WYNN’s recent 15% decline over three months has pushed it below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, reflecting broader market corrections or profit-taking. Despite strong analyst targets, the stock’s momentum has waned, creating a technical disconnect that suggests a period of consolidation or further downside before a sustained rebound.
Q: What does the ‘Moderate’ Technical Confluence Score of 60/100 imply for WYNN?
A score of 60/100 indicates mixed technical signals but leans towards a moderately supportive setup. While elements like Volume Profile and Liquidity Sweeps show institutional interest at lower levels, the neutral RSI and price trading below key moving averages prevent a stronger ‘Buy’ signal. It suggests caution and waiting for clearer directional confirmation.
Q: Are the insider transactions on January 7, 2026, a cause for concern?
The insider transactions on January 7, 2026, show sales by the CEO and CFO. While these could be for personal financial planning or stock option exercises, they do not signal insider confidence through buying. This lack of recent insider buying, combined with the sales, removes a potential positive catalyst for the stock.
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π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be made based on your own research and financial situation. Prices and data are subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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