Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) $199.42
Texas Instruments finds itself at a pivotal juncture, trading below its short-term moving average just weeks before its next earnings report.
52-wk High $231.32
π Investment Snapshot
- π° TXN trades at $199.42, carrying a P/E of 36.5x, a premium to the S&P 500.
- π Q4 2025 revenue hit $4.42B with EPS of $1.27, showing a slight sequential dip.
- π The company’s focus on industrial and automotive segments remains a key long-term driver.
- π― Analysts hold a ‘Hold’ consensus with a target of $221.55, implying 11.1% upside.
TXN currently trades below its 50-day moving average, yet remains above its 200-day, indicating mixed short-term momentum. The RSI sits at a neutral 56.1, failing to signal an oversold entry point, while the imminent earnings report introduces further uncertainty.
| π Entry Zone | $188.00 or below | π Stop-Loss | $184.00 |
| π Adjust If | A confirmed break above the SMA50 ($205.84) on above-average volume, or a significant positive earnings surprise, would warrant re-evaluation. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
Texas Instruments has seen its stock price rebound by +13.3% over the past three months, yet it now faces resistance at its 50-day moving average. The market appears to be digesting recent performance, which included a slight sequential revenue decline in Q4 2025, even as the company continues to pivot towards its higher-growth industrial and automotive segments. This strategic shift, while promising long-term, introduces short-term volatility as investors weigh current demand against future potential.
The primary risk to the investment thesis right now centers on the broader semiconductor cycle and its impact on TXN’s core markets. While the company’s analog and embedded processing chips are foundational, a significant slowdown in industrial capital expenditure or automotive production could pressure revenue. Furthermore, the recent insider selling activity in February 2026, totaling over 160,000 shares across multiple officers, raises questions about management’s near-term outlook, particularly given the stock’s current valuation premium.
π€ Considering the current moderate volatility (VIX 24.25) and rising 10Y Treasury yield (4.33%), how might TXN’s industrial and automotive segment exposure buffer or amplify potential downside risks in the broader semiconductor cycle?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Texas Instruments Incorporated |
| Ticker / Exchange | TXN / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Technology / Semiconductors |
| CEO | Haviv Ilan |
| Founded / HQ | 1930 / Dallas, Texas |
π Price Action & Technicals
Golden Cross
Inside VA
A sell-side sweep occurred at $196.43 on March 25, 2026, indicating potential institutional distribution.
TXN currently trades below its 50-day SMA of $205.84, which now acts as immediate resistance, but remains firmly above its 200-day SMA of $188.29, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend. This setup points to a potential short-term pullback within an overall uptrend, with the 200-day SMA providing a critical support floor.
The RSI at 56.1 indicates neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for price discovery. While MACD shows a bullish cross, with the MACD line above its signal, the ADX at 34.1 with -DI (31.3) significantly above +DI (20.3) signals a strong underlying bearish trend. This divergence creates a conflicting technical picture, demanding caution.
Price action sits well above the Anchored VWAP from April 2025 at $185.18 and the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) at $178.8, reinforcing these levels as strong support. However, current volume runs at only 69% of its 20-day average, suggesting a lack of conviction behind recent price movements and potentially signaling hidden weakness.
The price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band, with a BB % of 90.6%, indicating it’s stretched to the upside in the short term. The presence of three unfilled bearish FVG zones above $195.05 suggests potential resistance levels or areas the market might seek to fill on a move higher, while the recent filled bullish FVG at $192.71-$194.28 confirms buying interest at those levels.
π€ With ADX signaling a strong bearish trend (-DI > +DI) yet MACD showing a bullish cross, which indicator carries more weight for your short-term trading decisions, and why?
β Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| TXN | Texas Instruments Inc. | 36.5x |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Inc. | 22.5x |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | 75.0x |
| INTC | Intel Corp. | 38.0x |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | 45.0x |
| S&P 500 | Index Average | 21.0x |
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.42B | $1.27 | |
| Q3 2025 | $4.74B | $1.48 | |
| Q2 2025 | $4.45B | $1.41 | |
| Q1 2025 | $4.07B | $1.28 |
Texas Instruments generated $1.3 billion in Free Cash Flow in the latest quarter, demonstrating robust operational efficiency. The company also returned $0.4 billion to shareholders through buybacks, underscoring its commitment to capital allocation and shareholder value.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- Industrial & Automotive Focus π’ Upside Surprise β TXN’s strategic pivot towards higher-growth industrial and automotive markets, which require long-lifecycle products, positions it for more stable and predictable revenue streams. This focus helps mitigate some of the cyclicality inherent in consumer electronics.
- Analog & Embedded Processing Dominance π‘ Priced In β As a leader in analog and embedded processing, Texas Instruments benefits from the increasing demand for electrification, automation, and connectivity across diverse industries. These foundational technologies are critical for nearly all modern electronic systems.
- Manufacturing & Supply Chain Resilience π‘ Priced In β TXN’s significant internal manufacturing capacity and 300-mm wafer production capabilities provide greater control over its supply chain, enhancing efficiency and reducing reliance on external foundries. This vertical integration is a competitive advantage.
π€ Texas Instruments’ long-term strategy hinges on its industrial and automotive segments. Do you believe the market is adequately pricing in the resilience and growth potential of these core businesses, or is there an underestimation of cyclical risks?
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 96,527 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 79,040 |
| State Street Corporation | 43,446 |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 28,324 |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. | 24,288 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIZARDI RAFAEL R | Chief Financial Officer | Feb 11, 2026 | Sale | 71,628 |
| LIZARDI RAFAEL R | Chief Financial Officer | Feb 10, 2026 | Sale | 64,532 |
| GARY MARK | Officer | Feb 11, 2026 | Sale | 23,169 |
| GARY MARK | Officer | Feb 11, 2026 | Sale | 12,921 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.0% | 3.2 |
β Key Risk Factors
~5-10% Revenue Hit
~$1B Revenue at Risk
~2% Margin Compression
Negative Sentiment
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270.0 | $221.55 | $160.0 | 32 | Hold |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Feb 23, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Feb 05, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Jefferies | Hold | Jan 28, 2026 | Maintains | |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Jan 28, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Jan 28, 2026 | Maintains |
The consensus ‘Hold’ rating from 32 analysts, with a mean target of $221.55, suggests a cautious outlook. The implied 11.1% upside falls short of a high-conviction ‘Buy’ signal, reflecting a balanced view on TXN’s near-term prospects.
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- Strong demand in industrial and automotive segments drives revenue growth, exceeding expectations.
- Successful execution of 300-mm wafer strategy leads to improved margins and market share gains.
π Base Case
Our base case assumes TXN continues its steady execution in industrial and automotive, with moderate revenue growth and stable margins. The stock maintains its premium valuation given its strong market position and dividend, but faces some cyclical headwinds. Fair value is derived from a blend of DCF and relative valuation, aligning with current analyst consensus.
π» Bear Case
- A deeper-than-expected semiconductor downturn or significant slowdown in core markets impacts TXN’s revenue and profitability.
- Increased competition or geopolitical risks lead to pricing pressure and market share erosion.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
Swing traders should avoid TXN for now due to conflicting technicals and imminent earnings. Wait for a clear break above $206 (SMA50) or a retest of $188 (SMA200) before considering any short-term positions.
Position investors should stay on the sidelines and monitor TXN’s upcoming earnings. An entry window could emerge on a pullback towards the $188-$190 zone, aligning with the 200-day SMA and recent liquidity sweeps.
Long-term investors already holding TXN should maintain their position, provided their original thesis on industrial and automotive growth remains intact. Consider scaling into any significant dips below $190 for dollar-cost averaging.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: Why is TXN’s P/E ratio higher than the S&P 500 average?
Texas Instruments commands a premium P/E of 36.5x compared to the S&P 500’s 21x due to its strong market position in essential analog and embedded processing, consistent free cash flow generation, and a robust dividend yield of 2.91%. Investors often pay more for its stability and long-term growth prospects in critical industrial and automotive sectors.
Q: What do the recent insider sales imply for TXN?
The significant insider selling activity in February 2026, totaling over 160,000 shares by multiple officers, typically suggests that those closest to the company perceive the stock as fully valued or anticipate near-term headwinds. While not a definitive sell signal, it warrants caution and closer scrutiny, especially when combined with a neutral technical setup.
Q: How does TXN’s technical confluence score of 70/100 impact the ‘WAIT’ verdict?
Despite a ‘Moderate’ technical confluence score of 70/100, our ‘WAIT’ verdict is driven by other critical factors. While VWAP, Volume Profile, and Liquidity Sweeps show strong alignment, the RSI is not oversold (56.1), the consensus target upside is below 15%, and earnings are imminent. These factors collectively override the technical score for a high-conviction ‘BUY’ at this specific price point.
π Want to verify if this analysis still holds?
π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data is as of April 07, 2026, unless otherwise stated.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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