[TXN] Texas Instruments Incorporated $187.19
52-wk High $231.32
📌 Investment Snapshot
- 💰 Price & Valuation: TXN trades at $187.19, with a P/E of 34.3x, a premium to the S&P 500 average.
- 📈 Latest Quarter: Q4 FY25 revenue hit $4.4B, up +10.4% YoY, signaling a recovery in demand.
- 🔑 #1 Catalyst: Strong demand for analog and embedded chips in industrial and automotive sectors.
- 🎯 Consensus: HOLD rating from 32 analysts, with a mean target of $222 (+18.6% upside).
| 📍 Entry Zone | $185 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $160 |
| 📋 Adjust If | Price breaks below $160 or revenue growth decelerates significantly. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
Texas Instruments is currently trading at $187.19, significantly below its 52-week high of $231.32, presenting a potential value opportunity for long-term investors. The recent Q4 FY25 earnings report showed a +10.4% YoY revenue growth to $4.4 billion, indicating a recovery in demand for its core analog and embedded processing products, particularly within the industrial and automotive sectors. This rebound, coupled with an oversold RSI of 23.3, suggests that the stock may be nearing a bottom, making it an interesting watch for a strategic entry.
However, the primary risk lies in its valuation. With a P/E (TTM) of 34.3x, TXN trades at a notable premium to the S&P 500 average of 21.0x and several tech peers. This elevated multiple could limit upside potential if growth decelerates or if broader market sentiment shifts away from premium valuations, potentially leading to a 10-15% correction to align with historical averages or peer multiples.
Company Overview
| Label | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Texas Instruments Incorporated |
| Ticker / Exchange | TXN / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Technology / Semiconductors |
| CEO | Haviv Ilan |
| Founded / HQ | 1930 / Dallas, Texas |
Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| TXN | (This stock) | 34.3x |
| S&P 500 Avg | S&P 500 Avg | 21.0x |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 23.9x |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 27.6x |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 25.3x |
| CRM | Salesforce, Inc. | 25.0x |
Price Action & Technicals
$187.19
-14.8%
+6.9%
-19.1%
TXN’s current price of $187.19 is trading below its 50-day SMA of $205.09 and just below its 200-day SMA of $188.22, indicating bearish momentum in the short-to-medium term. The 14-day RSI at 23.3 signals that the stock is deeply oversold, suggesting a potential rebound. Additionally, the Bollinger Band position at 17.1% indicates the price is near the lower band, reinforcing the oversold condition, while trading volume is 2.17x its 20-day average, indicating significant recent activity.
Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 | $4.4B | N/A | +10.4% |
| Q3 FY25 | $4.7B | $1.48 | +14.2% |
| Q2 FY25 | $4.4B | $1.41 | +16.4% |
| Q1 FY25 | $4.1B | $1.28 | +11.1% |
Texas Instruments maintains a strong commitment to shareholder returns, consistently generating substantial free cash flow. This cash flow is primarily deployed through a long-standing dividend growth policy and strategic share buybacks, reinforcing investor confidence in its financial stability and capital allocation strategy.
Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Industrial & Automotive Demand 🟢: Strong, sustained demand for analog and embedded processing chips in these resilient end-markets continues to be a primary revenue driver, offering stability and growth potential.
- Long-Term Manufacturing Capacity 🟡: TI’s investments in 300-mm wafer fabs are expected to provide a significant cost advantage and capacity for future growth, though the benefits are largely priced into current valuations.
- Broad Product Portfolio 🟢: A diversified product range across thousands of customers reduces reliance on any single market segment, providing resilience against cyclical downturns in specific industries.
Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
Institutional Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 96,527K |
| Blackrock Inc. | 79,040K |
| State Street Corporation | 43,446K |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 28,324K |
| Charles Schwab Investmen | 24,288K |
Short Interest
| Short % of Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 2.37% | 2.1 |
The low short interest in TXN, at 2.37% of float and 2.1 days to cover, indicates limited bearish conviction among short sellers.
Key Risk Factors — Risk Matrix
Semiconductor Cyclicality
The semiconductor industry is inherently cyclical, and a prolonged downturn in global electronics demand could significantly impact TXN’s revenue and profitability.
~$10B impact
Geopolitical Tensions & Trade Wars
Escalating trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, could disrupt supply chains, increase tariffs, and restrict market access for TXN’s products, impacting a significant portion of its global sales.
~$15B+ impact
Intense Competition
The analog and embedded processing markets are highly competitive, with rivals like Analog Devices and STMicroelectronics constantly innovating, potentially leading to pricing pressures and market share erosion for TXN.
~$8B impact
Macroeconomic Slowdown
A significant global economic slowdown or recession could reduce capital expenditure across industrial and automotive sectors, directly impacting demand for TXN’s components and leading to revenue contraction.
~$12B+ impact
Guidance & Wall Street View
Recent Analyst Actions
| Firm | Rating | Price Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | $250.00 | 2026-02-23 | Maintain |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | $240.00 | 2026-02-05 | Maintain |
| Jefferies | Hold | $210.00 | 2026-01-28 | Maintain |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | $227.00 | 2026-01-28 | Maintain |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | $175.00 | 2026-01-28 | Maintain |
Consensus Price Target Distribution
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Total Analysts | Consensus Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 | $222 | $160 | 32 | HOLD |
The analyst consensus for TXN is a HOLD, with a mean target of $222, implying an +18.6% upside from the current price. The wide range between the high target of $270 and the low target of $160 suggests differing views on TXN’s near-term growth trajectory and valuation.
Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
Bull Case
- Stronger-than-expected recovery in industrial and automotive end-markets drives accelerated revenue growth, potentially exceeding 15% YoY for several quarters.
- Successful execution of new product launches and expansion into emerging markets (e.g., IoT, AI edge computing) leads to market share gains and margin expansion, justifying a higher P/E multiple.
Implied Price Target: $245
Base Case
TXN continues its steady growth trajectory, benefiting from stable demand in core markets. Revenue growth remains in the 8-12% range, and margins hold firm. The stock trades in line with its historical average P/E, reflecting its mature business model and dividend yield.
Implied Fair Value: $215
Bear Case
- A global economic recession or a significant slowdown in industrial production leads to a sharp decline in chip demand, causing revenue to contract by -5% to -10% YoY.
- Increased competition or geopolitical tensions (e.g., US-China trade restrictions) severely impact TXN’s market share and ability to operate efficiently, compressing margins and forcing a multiple re-rating.
Implied Downside Target: $155
Disclaimer & Hashtags
This Veqtio analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment decisions should be made with due diligence and consultation with a qualified financial professional. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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