Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) $83.16
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) currently trades at $83.16, sitting just above its 52-week low amidst a weak technical confluence score and bearish momentum.
52-wk High $101.79
π Investment Snapshot
- NDAQ trades at $83.16, down 18.3% from its 52-week high, with a P/E of 26.9x.
- Latest quarter (Q4 2025) saw revenue of $2.08B and EPS of $0.90.
- The firm’s diversified revenue streams from market services, data, and anti-financial crime solutions provide stability.
- Analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with a mean target of $107.00, implying 28.67% upside.
NDAQ currently trades near the lower Bollinger Band, hinting at a potential bounce, yet weak technicals and a low confluence score suggest caution. The stock struggles to reclaim key moving averages, indicating persistent selling pressure.
| π Entry Zone | $81.96 or below | π Stop-Loss | $79.00 |
| π Adjust If | Price reclaims $85.53 (SMA50) with strong volume, signaling a shift in momentum. Conversely, a break below $81.96 (lower Bollinger Band) could open further downside. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
Over the past 60-90 days, NDAQ has experienced a significant pullback, shedding 15.1% in the last three months. This decline brings the stock closer to its 52-week lows, challenging its previous uptrend. While the broader market, as reflected by the S&P 500, has seen a 3.73% gain in the last week, NDAQ has diverged, indicating company-specific or sector-specific pressures.
A primary risk for NDAQ stems from sustained market volatility (VIX at 19.16) and rising interest rates (10Y Treasury at 4.3%). Higher rates could impact the valuation of growth stocks and potentially reduce trading volumes, directly affecting NDAQ’s transaction-based revenues. How much further can NDAQ fall before its fundamental strength outweighs these macro headwinds?
π€ Given the recent underperformance relative to the broader market, are current macro pressures truly priced into NDAQ’s valuation, or does further downside remain?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Market Cap | $47.5B |
| P/E Ratio | 26.9x |
| EPS | $3.09 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.30% |
π Price Action & Technicals
Golden Cross
Inside VA
A sell-side liquidity sweep at $87.51 on April 6, 2026, confirms institutional distribution at higher levels, reinforcing the recent downtrend.
NDAQ currently trades below both its 50-day ($85.53) and 200-day ($90.04) Simple Moving Averages, a classic bearish signal. The 50-day SMA now acts as immediate resistance, and reclaiming it is crucial for any sustained upward movement. Failure to do so could see the stock test its 52-week low of $69.88.
The MACD shows a recent bullish crossover with the MACD line at -0.29 above its signal line at -0.35, but this occurs in negative territory, suggesting weak upward momentum within a broader downtrend. Meanwhile, the ADX at 19.5 indicates a lack of strong trend strength, while the -DI (33.4) significantly outweighs the +DI (22.7), confirming bearish control.
Price sits below the Anchored VWAP ($88.03) from April 21, 2025, a key institutional support level, indicating that long-term buyers from that period are now underwater. The Volume Profile’s Point of Control (POC) at $88.17 further reinforces this level as a significant resistance zone, with current price within the Value Area ($83.74-$98.51).
NDAQ is currently trading near the lower Bollinger Band ($81.96), which often acts as dynamic support, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, the Volume Ratio at 1.17x (vs. 20-day avg) indicates slightly elevated selling pressure, preventing a strong rebound. The Technical Confluence Score of 20/100 (Weak) underscores the pervasive bearish sentiment, with no strong alignment across VWAP, Volume Profile, ADX, or FVG to support a bullish reversal.
The presence of two open bearish Fair Value Gaps at $84.21-$87.75 and $88.64-$96.15 suggests potential magnet zones for price to fill on any upward correction, but these also represent significant resistance levels. The recent sell-side liquidity sweep at $87.51 confirms institutional distribution, making any rally towards these gaps vulnerable to further selling.
π€ Considering the MACD’s weak bullish cross in negative territory and the strong bearish signals from ADX/DMI, which indicator should investors prioritize for a decisive entry signal?
β Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 26.9x |
| SPY | S&P 500 Average | 22.5x |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 25.1x |
| CME | CME Group Inc. | 24.7x |
| LSEG | London Stock Exchange Group plc | 30.2x |
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.08B | $0.90 | +6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.96B | $0.73 | +4.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.09B | $0.78 | +5.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.09B | $0.68 | +3.5% |
Nasdaq generated strong free cash flow of $0.5B in the latest quarter, demonstrating robust operational efficiency. The company also returned value to shareholders through $0.3B in share buybacks, signaling management’s confidence in the stock’s intrinsic value and commitment to capital allocation.
Nasdaq has consistently delivered solid revenue growth over the past year, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $2.08B and EPS at $0.90. This steady performance underscores the resilience of its diversified business model, which spans market services, data, and anti-financial crime solutions. The consistent earnings suggest a stable underlying business, even amidst market fluctuations.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- Anti-Financial Crime Solutions π’ Upside Surprise β Nasdaq’s expansion into anti-financial crime technology represents a significant growth vector. As regulatory scrutiny intensifies globally, demand for sophisticated fraud detection and compliance tools will only increase, positioning NDAQ to capture a larger share of this expanding market.
- Index & Data Services π‘ Priced In β The recurring revenue generated from Nasdaq’s index licensing and market data services provides a stable and high-margin revenue stream. As passive investing grows, demand for robust index products and real-time data feeds ensures continued profitability and predictability for this segment.
- Technology & SaaS Transformation π’ Upside Surprise β Nasdaq continues its strategic shift towards a technology and SaaS-centric model, moving beyond traditional exchange operations. This transformation enhances scalability, improves margins, and diversifies revenue away from volatile transaction fees, attracting a broader investor base.
π€ With Nasdaq’s increasing focus on technology and SaaS solutions, how effectively can it compete with established tech giants in areas like anti-financial crime, and what market share is truly attainable?
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 59,916 |
| Investor AB | 58,182 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 39,503 |
| Wellington Management Group, LLP | 37,659 |
| Massachusetts Financial Services Co. | 27,627 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKULE JEREMY | Officer | 2026-04-01 | Sale | 7633 |
| TAL COHEN | Officer | 2026-04-01 | Sale | 15267 |
| ZECCA JOHN | Officer | 2026-04-01 | Sale | 7339 |
| SMITH BRYAN EVERARD | Officer | 2026-04-01 | Sale | 7046 |
| DALY MICHELLE LYNN | Officer | 2026-04-01 | Sale | 2025 |
| YOUNGWOOD SARAH | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-04-01 | Sale | 15267 |
| FRIEDMAN ADENA T | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-04-01 | Sale | 39929 |
| FRIEDMAN ADENA T | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-04-01 | Sale | 113611 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 1.6% | 1.7 |
β Key Risk Factors
~$0.5B impact
~$1B impact
~$0.7B impact
~$0.3B impact
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $120.00 | $107.00 | $82.00 | 15 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | $107 | 2026-04-08 | main |
| TD Cowen | Buy | $110 | 2026-02-26 | up |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | $105 | 2026-01-30 | main |
| TD Cowen | Hold | $95 | 2026-01-30 | main |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $108 | 2026-01-30 | main |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | $115 | 2026-01-30 | reit |
| Barclays | Overweight | $107 | 2026-01-30 | main |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $108 | 2026-01-15 | main |
The analyst consensus for NDAQ remains a 'Buy', with a mean price target of $107.00, representing a significant 28.67% upside from the current price. This optimism is largely driven by Nasdaq’s diversified revenue streams and growth initiatives, particularly in technology solutions. However, the range of targets, from a low of $82.00 to a high of $120.00, indicates some divergence in expectations, with the low target suggesting potential for further downside from current levels.
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- Nasdaq’s strategic shift into anti-financial crime and data services provides stable, high-margin recurring revenue, insulating it from market volatility.
- Consistent EPS growth and strong free cash flow support continued share buybacks and dividends, enhancing shareholder value.
π Base Case
NDAQ will likely consolidate around current levels, fluctuating between $82 and $90. The company’s fundamental strength provides a floor, but technical weakness and insider selling cap upside in the near term. We expect modest growth as new initiatives mature.
π» Bear Case
- Persistent technical weakness, including trading below key moving averages and a low confluence score, signals further downside potential.
- Significant insider selling and macroeconomic headwinds like rising rates could exacerbate selling pressure, pushing NDAQ towards its 52-week low.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
Swing traders should avoid NDAQ for now. The weak technical confluence score and lack of clear bullish momentum present an unfavorable risk-reward profile. Wait for a decisive break above the SMA50 ($85.53) with increased volume before considering any long positions.
Position investors should stay on the sidelines. While the long-term thesis for NDAQ remains intact, the current technical setup is weak, and the stock is not yet oversold enough (RSI 41.9) to warrant an aggressive entry. Look for a pullback to the lower Bollinger Band ($81.96) or a clear reversal signal before initiating a position.
Long-term investors holding NDAQ should continue to hold. The company’s fundamental strength, diversified revenue, and growth initiatives in technology solutions remain compelling. Use any further dips towards the $80-$75 range as a potential accumulation opportunity, provided the broader market sentiment improves.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: What is driving Nasdaq’s recent stock performance?
Nasdaq’s recent stock performance reflects a combination of broader market volatility, rising interest rates, and company-specific technical weakness. While fundamentals remain strong, these factors have contributed to the stock’s 15.1% decline over the last three months.
Q: Is Nasdaq’s dividend yield attractive for income investors?
With a dividend yield of 1.30%, Nasdaq offers a modest income stream. While not a high-yield stock, its consistent free cash flow and commitment to buybacks suggest a sustainable dividend that can grow over time, appealing to investors seeking a blend of growth and income.
Q: How does Nasdaq’s P/E ratio compare to its peers?
Nasdaq’s P/E ratio of 26.9x is slightly above the S&P 500 average (22.5x) but generally in line with or slightly higher than its direct exchange peers like ICE (25.1x) and CME (24.7x). This premium reflects its diversified business model and growth potential in data and technology services.
π Want to check the current price action yourself?
π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
#NDAQ #Nasdaq #StockAnalysis #FinancialMarkets #Investments #StockMarket