Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR) $77.91
Ingersoll Rand sits at a critical juncture, having shed over 22% from its 52-week peak, yet flashing an eye-popping 10% dividend yield that demands immediate scrutiny.
52-wk High $100.96
📌 Investment Snapshot
- 💰 IR trades at $77.91, a -22.8% discount from its 52-week high, with a reported 10.00% dividend yield.
- 📈 Latest Q4 2025 revenue hit $2.09B, delivering $0.67 EPS, alongside robust free cash flow generation.
- 🔑 Strong free cash flow of $0.5B and $0.3B in buybacks underscore management’s commitment to shareholder returns.
- 🎯 Analysts maintain a ‘Buy’ consensus with a mean target of $100.60, implying a +29.1% upside potential.
Ingersoll Rand currently navigates a strong bearish trend, confirmed by an ADX of 48.5, despite a significant pullback from its highs. While the stock sits near its lower Bollinger Band, the RSI of 39.0 does not yet signal a definitive oversold condition for a high-conviction entry.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $76.00 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $64.00 |
| 📋 Adjust If | IR reclaims the Volume Profile Point of Control at $79.85 with sustained volume. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
Ingersoll Rand has experienced a notable pullback of over 17% in the last month, placing it significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This sharp correction presents a potential entry window for long-term investors, especially given the company’s consistent free cash flow generation and active share repurchase program.
However, the reported 10.00% dividend yield for an industrial company of this scale raises a significant red flag. With a TTM EPS of $1.45, such a yield implies an unsustainable payout ratio exceeding 500%, suggesting a data anomaly or a one-off special dividend that won’t recur. Investors must verify the sustainability of this yield before making any decisions.
🤔 Given the conflicting signals of a high dividend yield and strong bearish technicals, what specific fundamental catalyst would compel you to initiate a position here?
🏢 Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Ingersoll Rand Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | IR / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Industrials / Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| CEO | Vicente Reynal |
| Founded / HQ | 1871 / Davidson, NC |
📈 Price Action & Technicals
Dead Cross
Inside VA
Three recent buy-side sweeps at $79.76, $80.11, and $82.95 failed to sustain price above these levels.
Ingersoll Rand’s price action signals a clear downtrend, trading significantly below both its 50-day ($88.8) and 200-day ($82.9) Simple Moving Averages. The MACD has confirmed a bearish cross, with the MACD line falling below its signal line, reinforcing the negative momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.0 indicates weakness, though not yet screaming oversold, suggesting further room for downside. Critically, the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 48.5 points to an extremely strong trend, with the -DI (36.2) dominating the +DI (19.4), unequivocally confirming the bearish momentum.
The current price of $77.91 sits within the Value Area ($75.85-$87.26) but below the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) at $79.85, indicating that the majority of recent trading volume occurred at higher prices. The Anchored VWAP from April 2025 at $82.53 further confirms that the stock is trading below a key institutional average price.
Price action is currently hugging the lower Bollinger Band ($76.92), a level that often acts as dynamic support in a downtrend. While three recent buy-side liquidity sweeps occurred above the current price, their failure to hold suggests that buying interest at those levels was insufficient to reverse the trend. The technical confluence score of 50/100 reflects this mixed picture, with VWAP and FVG signals offering no immediate support.
🤔 With ADX confirming a strong bearish trend, what specific technical indicator would you prioritize as a signal for a potential trend reversal?
💰 Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.09B | $0.67 | |
| Q3 2025 | $1.96B | $0.61 | |
| Q2 2025 | $1.89B | $-0.29 | |
| Q1 2025 | $1.72B | $0.46 |
Ingersoll Rand demonstrates robust financial health, reporting $0.5B in free cash flow in the latest quarter. The company actively returns capital to shareholders, executing $0.3B in buybacks during the same period, signaling confidence in its valuation and future prospects.
🚀 Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Industrial Automation & Efficiency 🟢 Upside Surprise — Global demand for automation and energy-efficient industrial solutions continues to grow, directly benefiting IR’s core compressor, pump, and fluid management offerings. This trend supports sustained revenue expansion.
- Acquisition Strategy 🟢 Upside Surprise — IR has a proven track record of strategic acquisitions, expanding its product portfolio and market reach. Continued inorganic growth could provide further revenue and synergy benefits.
- Infrastructure Spending 🟡 Priced In — Increased global infrastructure investment, particularly in manufacturing and construction, drives demand for Ingersoll Rand’s specialized industrial machinery. This macro tailwind provides a stable demand environment.
🤔 Considering IR’s strong free cash flow, how much of its future growth do you expect to come from organic expansion versus strategic acquisitions?
🏦 Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Capital International Investors | 52,353 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | 45,186 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 29,986 |
| Capital World Investors | 29,414 |
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | 21,791 |
| Capital Research Global Investors | 19,476 |
| Franklin Resources, Inc. | 15,641 |
| State Street Corporation | 15,458 |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 12,211 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 9,465 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REYNAL VICENTE | Chief Executive Officer | Mar 2, 2026 | Grant/Vest | 118,044 |
| REYNAL VICENTE | Chief Executive Officer | Mar 2, 2026 | Grant/Vest | 118,044 |
| KINI VIKRAM | Chief Financial Officer | Feb 27, 2026 | Grant/Vest | 3,597 |
| KEENE KATHLEEN M | Officer | Feb 27, 2026 | Grant/Vest | 1,236 |
| EMMERICH MATTHEW J | Chief Technology Officer | Feb 27, 2026 | Grant/Vest | 643 |
| SCHIESL ANDREW R | General Counsel | Feb 27, 2026 | Grant/Vest | 1,750 |
| HEPDING ELIZABETH MELOY | Officer | Feb 27, 2026 | Grant/Vest | 1,117 |
| REYNAL VICENTE | Chief Executive Officer | Feb 27, 2026 | Grant/Vest | 13,058 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.0% | 4.2 |
⚠ Key Risk Factors
Revenue & EPS hit
Investor confidence erosion
Margin compression
Market share loss
🤔 Considering the potential for an unsustainable dividend yield, how would you adjust your valuation model for IR if the actual forward yield were closer to the industrial sector average of 2-3%?
🎯 Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $117.00 | $100.60 | $82.00 | 15 | buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Apr 2026 | main | |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Apr 2026 | main | |
| Evercore ISI Group | In-Line | Feb 2026 | main | |
| Stifel | Hold | Feb 2026 | main |
Despite the recent price weakness, analysts largely maintain a ‘Buy’ consensus, with a mean price target of $100.60 suggesting substantial upside. This optimism appears to be driven by fundamental strength, potentially overlooking the current bearish technical signals.
📊 Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
🐂 Bull Case
- Robust free cash flow and consistent share buybacks underpin strong shareholder returns and financial stability.
- Strategic acquisitions and growing demand for industrial automation position IR for sustained revenue and earnings growth.
- Analyst consensus points to significant upside, suggesting current weakness is a temporary dip in a long-term growth story.
📊 Base Case
Our base case anticipates Ingersoll Rand’s core industrial markets to remain stable, with modest organic growth supplemented by strategic tuck-in acquisitions. The stock will likely consolidate around its current technical support levels before any significant rebound, with its fair value reflecting a balance between its strong fundamentals and current market headwinds.
🐻 Bear Case
- A deepening industrial slowdown or recession could significantly curtail demand, impacting IR’s top and bottom lines.
- The strong bearish technical trend, coupled with the stock trading below key moving averages, suggests further downside potential.
- If the reported 10% dividend yield proves unsustainable or a data error, investor confidence could erode, leading to further price depreciation.
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
Swing traders should avoid IR for now; the strong bearish trend and lack of a clear reversal signal present too much risk. Wait for a confirmed break above the $79.85 POC on high volume before considering a short-term long position.
Position investors should stay on the sidelines and monitor for further consolidation. Consider scaling into a position if the stock tests the $76.00-$75.00 range, which aligns with the lower Value Area, with a stop below the 52-week low.
Long-term investors with conviction in IR’s fundamentals should wait for a deeper dip or a clear technical reversal. While the long-term thesis remains intact, the current technical weakness suggests a more attractive entry point may emerge, potentially closer to the $70.00 mark.
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: Why is Ingersoll Rand’s dividend yield so high?
The reported 10.00% dividend yield for IR is highly unusual for an industrial company of its size, especially when compared to its TTM EPS of $1.45. This suggests a potential data anomaly, a one-time special dividend, or an unsustainable payout ratio. Investors should verify this figure directly with company filings.
Q: What do the technical indicators suggest about IR’s current price trend?
Technical indicators point to a strong bearish trend. The stock trades below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, the MACD shows a dead cross, and the ADX at 48.5 with a dominant -DI confirms significant downside momentum. While the RSI is approaching oversold territory at 39.0, it’s not yet at a level that typically signals an immediate bounce.
Q: Is the recent analyst optimism justified given the stock’s performance?
Analysts largely maintain a ‘Buy’ consensus with a mean target of $100.60, implying significant upside. This optimism likely stems from IR’s strong free cash flow, consistent buybacks, and long-term growth drivers in industrial automation. However, the market’s recent price action suggests these positives may be overshadowed by macro concerns or technical selling pressure in the short term.
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📋 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in securities involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided is based on publicly available data and our interpretation thereof, which may not be exhaustive or entirely accurate.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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