Amgen Inc. (AMGN) $340.83
Amgen’s stock currently sits at $340.83, deeply oversold with an RSI of 27.1, yet a strong bearish trend persists as indicated by a high ADX.
52-wk High $391.29
π Investment Snapshot
- π° Trading at $340.83, Amgen’s P/E of 23.95x sits slightly above the S&P 500 average.
- π Q4 2025 revenue hit $9.87B, though EPS saw a dip to $2.45, indicating some quarterly volatility.
- π The RSI screams oversold at 27.1, suggesting a potential bounce from current depressed levels.
- π― Analysts maintain a ‘Buy’ consensus with a mean target of $350.76, implying limited immediate upside.
Amgen’s stock is deeply oversold, with a high technical confluence score of 70/100, yet the consensus analyst target offers only a modest 2.9% upside. A strong bearish trend, indicated by a high ADX, also warrants caution, preventing a high-conviction ‘BUY’ call at this juncture.
| π Entry Zone | $315-$320 or below | π Stop-Loss | $310 |
| π Adjust If | A clear reversal candlestick pattern emerges on daily charts, accompanied by a significant surge in buying volume (at least 1.5x average), confirming buyer conviction. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
Amgen has experienced a notable pullback over the past month, shedding 7.8% while the broader S&P 500 rallied. This divergence, coupled with an RSI plummeting to 27.1, positions the stock in deeply oversold territory, making it an intriguing watch for a potential rebound.
However, the immediate upside appears constrained. The mean analyst target suggests only a modest 2.9% gain from current levels, and a robust ADX reading of 46.5, with the -DI dominating, confirms a strong bearish trend is firmly in place. This indicates that while oversold, the selling pressure remains significant.
π€ Could the market be underestimating Amgen’s pipeline strength, or is the current pullback a rational repricing of future growth?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Amgen Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | AMGN / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Healthcare / Drug Manufacturers – General |
| CEO | Robert A. Bradway |
| Founded / HQ | 1980 / Thousand Oaks, CA |
π Price Action & Technicals
Dead Cross
Inside VA
A buy-side sweep occurred at $374.25 on March 3, 2026, followed by sell-side sweeps at $382.47 and $380.58 on February 25, 2026.
Amgen’s price action reveals a stock under pressure. It currently trades below its SMA50 ($362.29) and is testing the lower Bollinger Band ($334.43), underscoring the recent bearish momentum. While the price remains above the SMA200 ($316.36), the immediate trend is clearly downward.
The RSI at 27.1 screams oversold, often a precursor to a bounce. However, the MACD’s bearish crossover and the strong bearish trend confirmed by an ADX of 46.5 (with -DI significantly above +DI) challenge the notion of an immediate, sustained reversal. These conflicting signals demand a cautious approach.
Volume Profile analysis shows the current price within the Value Area ($271.03-$351.2), but well above the Point of Control ($288.57), suggesting that while current levels have seen trading activity, the bulk of recent volume occurred at lower prices. The Anchored VWAP from May 2025 at $313.48 provides a strong underlying support level should the pullback continue.
Recent volume is running well below average (58% of 20-day average), indicating a lack of conviction behind the recent price moves. The presence of multiple unfilled bearish FVGs above the current price ($341.82-$345.87, $348.17-$351.66, $356.32-$359.8) suggests potential resistance points or magnets for a short-term rebound, but these also represent gaps that need to be filled before a clear upward trend can establish.
π€ Given the strong bearish trend indicated by ADX, does the oversold RSI truly signal an imminent bounce, or merely a pause before further decline?
β Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | 23.95x |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | 18.5x |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 12.1x |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 50.3x |
| S&P 500 | Index Average | 21.0x |
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | $9.87B | $2.45 | |
| 2025-09-30 | $9.56B | $5.93 | |
| 2025-06-30 | $9.18B | $2.65 | |
| 2025-03-31 | $8.15B | $3.20 |
Amgen reported a solid Free Cash Flow of $1.0B in the latest quarter, providing ample capital for its attractive 2.94% dividend yield and potential share repurchases, underscoring financial stability.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- Diversified Product Portfolio π‘ Priced In β Amgen boasts a robust and diversified portfolio of established and emerging biopharmaceuticals, providing multiple revenue streams and reducing reliance on any single drug. This breadth offers resilience against patent cliffs and competitive pressures.
- Strong Free Cash Flow & Dividend π‘ Priced In β The company consistently generates significant free cash flow, evidenced by the latest $1.0B figure. This strong cash generation fuels its attractive 2.94% dividend yield, making it a compelling option for income-focused investors.
- Defensive Healthcare Sector π‘ Priced In β As a major player in the healthcare sector, Amgen benefits from the defensive nature of the industry, which tends to be less susceptible to economic downturns. This provides a degree of stability in volatile market conditions.
π€ With a robust dividend yield and positive FCF, is Amgen’s defensive appeal enough to offset potential growth concerns in a high-volatility market?
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 54,838 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 47,396 |
| State Street Corporation | 30,591 |
| Capital World Investors | 23,097 |
| Capital International Investors | 18,186 |
| Morgan Stanley | 15,744 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 14,303 |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. | 11,811 |
| Primecap Management Company | 8,904 |
| Wells Fargo & Company | 7,110 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRADWAY ROBERT A | Chief Executive Officer | Mar 4, 2026 | Unspecified | 119,782 |
| BRADWAY ROBERT A | Chief Executive Officer | Mar 3, 2026 | Unspecified | 42,657 |
| GRAHAM JONATHAN P | General Counsel | Mar 3, 2026 | Unspecified | 10,723 |
| MILLER DEREK | Officer | Mar 3, 2026 | Unspecified | 3,484 |
| BUSCH MATTHEW C. | Officer | Mar 3, 2026 | Unspecified | 938 |
| KHOSLA RACHNA | Officer | Mar 3, 2026 | Unspecified | 1,876 |
| SANTOS ESTEBAN | Officer | Mar 3, 2026 | Unspecified | 11,259 |
| REESE DAVID M. | Chief Technology Officer | Mar 3, 2026 | Unspecified | 12,063 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.0% | 6.1 |
β Key Risk Factors
Increased price swings
Potential revenue erosion
Continued price decline
Capped upside potential
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432.0 | $350.76 | $200.0 | 29 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Hold | Mar 2026 | init | |
| Barclays | Equal-Weight | Feb 2026 | init | |
| Wells Fargo | Equal-Weight | Feb 2026 | main | |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Feb 2026 | main | |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Feb 2026 | down | |
| Argus Research | Buy | Feb 2026 | main | |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Feb 2026 | main | |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Feb 2026 | main |
While the overall consensus rating is ‘Buy’, the individual analyst actions reveal a mixed sentiment, with several recent ‘Hold’ or ‘Equal-Weight’ initiations and downgrades. The mean target of $350.76 suggests a cautious outlook, offering only a marginal upside from current levels.
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- A strong rebound from the deeply oversold RSI (27.1) could propel the stock higher, especially if accompanied by positive news flow or broader market strength.
- Pipeline advancements or better-than-expected earnings in future quarters could re-rate the stock, pushing it towards the higher analyst targets.
π Base Case
Our base case anticipates Amgen’s stock to consolidate around current levels, potentially experiencing short-term bounces to fill bearish FVGs, but facing resistance from the strong bearish trend. We project a fair value around its current price, reflecting its defensive qualities balanced against growth concerns and limited analyst upside.
π» Bear Case
- The strong bearish trend indicated by ADX could continue, driving the stock towards its SMA200 at $316.36 or even the Anchored VWAP at $313.48.
- Broader market weakness or specific company setbacks (e.g., clinical trial failures, increased competition) could trigger a deeper decline, potentially testing the low analyst target of $200.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
Swing traders should avoid AMGN for now. While oversold, the strong bearish trend and low volume suggest a lack of immediate reversal conviction. Wait for a clear break above $345 with increased volume before considering a long entry, targeting the next FVG at $348-$351, with a tight stop below $338.
Position investors should wait for a more compelling entry. The ideal entry zone lies around the $315-$320 range, aligning with the SMA200 and Anchored VWAP. Scale into a position only if this support holds convincingly, setting a stop below $310 to manage risk.
Long-term investors interested in Amgen’s defensive characteristics and dividend yield should wait for a deeper pullback or a confirmed reversal. Consider initiating a small position if the stock approaches the $315-$320 area, viewing any further dip towards the VP POC at $288.57 as a potential scaling opportunity, provided the fundamental thesis remains intact.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: Is Amgen’s current valuation attractive?
Amgen’s P/E ratio of 23.95x is slightly above the S&P 500 average of 21x. While this suggests a modest premium, it’s not excessively high for a stable healthcare giant with consistent free cash flow and a solid dividend yield of 2.94%.
Q: What do the technical indicators suggest about Amgen’s short-term direction?
Technicals present a mixed picture. The RSI at 27.1 indicates Amgen is deeply oversold, signaling potential for a bounce. However, a high ADX of 46.5 with a dominant -DI confirms a strong bearish trend, suggesting that any rebound might be short-lived or face significant resistance.
Q: Why is the verdict ‘WAIT’ despite the stock being oversold?
The ‘WAIT’ verdict stems from a combination of factors: the mean analyst target offers only a modest 2.9% upside, failing our 15% conviction threshold; the strong bearish trend (ADX) suggests continued selling pressure; and despite the high technical confluence score, the absence of strong bullish FVG zones and mixed analyst sentiment warrants caution.
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π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data is as of April 08, 2026, and subject to change.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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