ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) $95.96
ON Semiconductor is testing critical support at $96, but the lack of fundamental momentum keeps us on the sidelines.
52-wk High $134.92
π Investment Snapshot
- Valuation remains stretched at 70.6x P/E despite the recent pullback.
- Q1 2026 revenue hit $1.51B with a net loss of $0.08 per share.
- RSI at 34.7 signals oversold conditions, yet technicals lack a bullish trigger.
- Consensus target of $114.12 implies 18.9% upside from current levels.
ON currently sits in a technical no-man’s-land. While the stock is oversold, the lack of a fundamental catalyst forces a defensive posture.
| π Entry Zone | $82.00 or below | π Stop-Loss | $70.00 |
| π Adjust If | A reclaim of the $100 psychological level on high volume. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
The semiconductor cycle remains volatile, and ON feels the pressure of inventory corrections. While the stock has retraced significantly from its highs, the lack of a clear earnings inflection point suggests we should exercise patience.
The primary risk remains the compressed margins and the potential for further guidance revisions if automotive demand continues to soften.
π€ Do you believe the automotive chip cycle has bottomed, or is there more room to fall?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
Open chart on TradingView β
π Price Action & Technicals
Inside VA
Sell-side Sweep at $98.67
The stock sits at $95.96, hovering well above the 200-day SMA of $72.14, which acts as a major floor.
RSI at 34.7 signals oversold conditions, yet the negative MACD divergence warns against catching a falling knife.
The Anchored VWAP at $82.29 provides a vital support level for institutional accumulation.
Volume profile analysis reveals the Point of Control (POC) at $60.82, suggesting significant value exists well below current levels.
Liquidity sweeps at $98.67 confirm institutional selling pressure, making a reclaim of $100 the necessary trigger for a bullish reversal.
β Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| ON | ON Semiconductor | 70.6x |
| TXN | Texas Instruments | 32.4x |
| ADI | Analog Devices | 35.1x |
| SPY | S&P 500 Index | 24.5x |
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.51B | $-0.08 | -2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.53B | $0.40 | -1.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.55B | $0.63 | +5.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.47B | $0.41 | -4.5% |
Free cash flow remains constrained at $0.2B, limiting aggressive capital allocation.
Earnings performance reveals a clear deceleration in revenue growth, putting pressure on the current premium valuation.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- EV/Automotive Exposure π‘ Priced In β Long-term secular growth remains intact despite short-term cyclical headwinds.
- Operational Efficiency π’ Upside Surprise β Streamlining efforts should improve margins once demand stabilizes.
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 58,158 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 39,911 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THAD TRENT | CFO | 2026-04-24 | Sale | 60000 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 10.5% | 2.1 |
β Key Risk Factors
~$2B impact
~$1.5B impact
~$0.5B impact
~$0.3B impact
π€ Which factor worries you more: the macro rate environment or the specific automotive demand slowdown?
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150.00 | $114.12 | $85.00 | 25 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | Positive | $N/A | 2026-07-09 | main |
| Mizuho | Outperform | $N/A | 2026-07-01 | main |
Analysts remain broadly bullish, yet recent price action challenges the consensus thesis.
Open chart on TradingView β
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- Automotive electrification secular tailwinds.
- Operational leverage improves as demand recovers.
π Base Case
Cyclical recovery takes longer than anticipated, keeping the stock range-bound.
π» Bear Case
- Further margin contraction.
- Inventory correction extends into 2027.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
Stay on the sidelines until the stock reclaims $100 with conviction.
Accumulate only on dips toward the $80 support level.
Maintain existing positions but avoid adding new capital until margins stabilize.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: Is ON Semiconductor a buy right now?
No. While oversold, the lack of a fundamental catalyst and negative earnings momentum suggest waiting for a better entry.
Q: What is the key support level to watch?
The Anchored VWAP at $82.29 and the 200-day SMA at $72.14 are the primary support zones.
Q: How does the current P/E compare to peers?
At 70.6x, ON trades at a significant premium to peers like Texas Instruments and Analog Devices, increasing downside risk.
π New to these terms? P/E Ratio Β· Free Cash Flow Β· Insider Signals Β· Stop-Loss Β· RSI
π How has the stock moved since this analysis?
π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investments involve risk.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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