Gartner, Inc. (IT) $133.24
Gartner has shed nearly two-thirds of its value, leaving the IT advisory giant trading at a rock-bottom 13.2x P/E that is testing the patience of value seekers.
52-wk High $375.84
π Investment Snapshot
- At $133.24, Gartner trades at a deep-value 13.2x P/E, sitting just 3.6% above its 52-week low of $124.25.
- Latest Q1 revenue of $1.51B paired with $3.18 EPS shows resilient cash generation despite the steep equity sell-off.
- A massive 24.7% short interest with 7.8 days to cover sets the stage for a violent short squeeze on any positive catalyst.
- Wall Street consensus remains cautious with a Hold rating, but the mean target of $164.23 offers 23.3% theoretical upside.
Gartner is carving out a painful bottom after a brutal 64.5% drawdown from its highs. While the valuation is historically cheap, technical momentum remains firmly bearish below key moving averages.
| π Entry Zone | $131.00 or below | π Stop-Loss | $120.00 |
| π Adjust If | a daily close above the 50-day SMA ($147.80) on above-average volume signals a structural trend reversal. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
Over the last 90 days, Gartner’s equity has faced relentless liquidation, sliding 14% in the past month alone to test multi-year support. This aggressive de-rating ignores the company’s sticky subscription-based research model and robust $400M in quarterly free cash flow.
The primary near-term threat stems from enterprise IT budget rationalization, which could pressure contract values and slow seat growth. If net retention rates dip below historical norms, the current 13.2x multiple could easily compress further toward the low analyst target of $120.00.
π€ Are you willing to catch this falling knife at a 13x multiple, or will you wait for the 50-day SMA to confirm a bottom?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Technology |
| Industry | Information Technology Services |
| Trailing EPS | $10.13 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Open chart on TradingView β
π Price Action & Technicals
Golden Cross
Outside VA
Sell-side sweep at $138.82 on 2026-07-07
Gartner’s price action is a textbook illustration of a structural downtrend, with the stock trading well below its declining 50-day SMA ($147.80) and 200-day SMA ($192.42). This macro-driven sell-off has pushed the equity to the brink of its 52-week low.
Interestingly, the daily RSI has recovered to a neutral 56.2, creating a divergence against the price which remains pinned near its lows. This suggests that while the immediate selling pressure has abated, buyers have not yet stepped in with conviction.
The volume profile reveals that the stock is trading far below its Point of Control (POC) at $154.36, indicating a lack of institutional support in the current range. The price must reclaim the Value Area Low of $140.67 to signal a structural shift.
A bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) remains open between $133.04 and $138.35, which will likely act as immediate overhead resistance on any relief rally. Conversely, the bullish FVG down at $131.73 has been completely filled, removing a key downside magnet.
With a weak Technical Confluence Score of 40/100, the charts advise staying on the sidelines. The only bullish pillar is the Anchored VWAP at $132.52, which is currently holding as micro-support.
β Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| IT | Gartner, Inc. | 13.2x |
| FORR | Forrester Research | 18.5x |
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc. | 28.4x |
| SPX | S&P 500 Index | 22.1x |
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.51B | $3.18 | -1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.75B | $3.36 | +4.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.52B | $0.47 | -82.0% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.69B | $3.11 | +3.5% |
Gartner continues to be a cash machine, generating $400M in free cash flow in the latest quarter. Management utilized this strength to execute $500M in share buybacks, taking advantage of the depressed stock price.
While Q1 2026 revenue dipped slightly to $1.51B, EPS of $3.18 beat conservative estimates. The massive EPS drop in Q3 2025 was a one-off event, and profitability has since normalized back above the $3.00 per share level.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- GenAI Advisory Demand π’ Upside Surprise β Enterprise confusion over AI deployment is driving record inquiry volumes for Gartner’s research and advisory services.
- Aggressive Share Buybacks π‘ Priced In β The company deployed $500M in buybacks last quarter, reducing share count at highly accretive valuations.
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 6,884 |
| BAMCO Inc. | 5,917 |
| Independent Franchise Partners, LLP | 4,600 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RINELLO JOHN J | Officer | 2026-06-30 | Purchase | 71 |
| SERRA EILEEN | Director | 2026-06-08 | Purchase | 1,744 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 24.7% | 7.8 |
β Key Risk Factors
~$0.3B impact
~$1.0B impact
π€ With short interest at 24.7%, does the potential for a violent short squeeze outweigh the risk of further macro-driven multiple compression?
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
Management has maintained a cautious outlook for the remainder of 2026, citing elongated sales cycles in North America but stable retention rates in Europe.
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $203.00 | $164.23 | $120.00 | 13 | Hold |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | N/A | 2026-07-10 | main |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | N/A | 2026-06-24 | main |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | N/A | 2026-04-28 | main |
Wall Street is highly divided on Gartner. While Wells Fargo remains bearish due to near-term IT spending headwinds, the consensus mean target of $164.23 suggests significant value is being overlooked at these levels.
Open chart on TradingView β
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- GenAI consulting boom drives double-digit contract value growth.
- Aggressive buybacks retire 10%+ of the float at depressed prices.
π Base Case
Gartner stabilizes contract values, trading sideways as it builds a base above $130.
π» Bear Case
- Enterprise seat rationalization leads to net negative client retention.
- Valuation multiple compresses to 11x P/E, matching historical recession lows.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
Do not buy yet. Wait for a daily close above the $138.35 bearish FVG on above-average volume to confirm that the short squeeze is underway.
Staying on the sidelines is the smartest move here. Let the stock establish a firm base between $125 and $131 before allocating capital.
If you already own Gartner, hold your position. The 13.2x P/E multiple and strong free cash flow protect the downside, making panic selling unnecessary.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: Why has Gartner stock fallen 64%?
The decline is primarily driven by a broader de-rating of IT service firms and fears of enterprise budget cuts, despite Gartner’s underlying business remaining highly profitable.
Q: Is Gartner’s high short interest a good thing?
For contrarian traders, yes. With 24.7% of the float shorted, any positive fundamental surprise could trigger a rapid, violent short squeeze.
Q: What is the key level to watch on the charts?
The 50-day SMA at $147.80 is the ultimate line in the sand. Reclaiming that level would signal a structural shift from bearish to bullish.
π New to these terms? P/E Ratio Β· Free Cash Flow Β· Insider Signals Β· Stop-Loss Β· RSI
π How has the stock moved since this analysis?
π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions in the security mentioned.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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