Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) $311.29
Texas Instruments approaches a critical earnings catalyst, leaving investors at a crossroads between momentum and event risk.
52-wk High $334.03
π Investment Snapshot
- Price trades at $311.29 with a 53.1x P/E multiple.
- Q1 2026 revenue reached $4.83B with $1.68 EPS.
- Industrial recovery serves as the primary growth catalyst.
- Consensus target sits at $298.00, implying -4.3% downside.
The technical confluence score of 80/100 signals underlying strength, yet the upcoming earnings print on July 22 mandates caution. We prefer to stay on the sidelines until the market digests the report.
| π Entry Zone | $296.00 or below | π Stop-Loss | $270.00 |
| π Adjust If | A clean break above $326.00 post-earnings. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
Over the last 90 days, TXN staged a significant recovery, driven by stabilizing industrial demand and robust analog semiconductor margins. Management’s focus on internal manufacturing capacity positions the firm well for the next cycle, though the current valuation reflects high expectations.
The primary risk remains a potential guidance miss if industrial end-markets fail to accelerate as anticipated. With the stock trading at a 53.1x P/E, the margin for error remains razor-thin.
Do you believe the current industrial recovery justifies a 53x multiple, or is the market overestimating the rebound?
π€ Do you believe the current industrial recovery justifies a 53x multiple, or is the market overestimating the rebound?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
π Price Action & Technicals
Inside VA
Buy-side Sweep at $299.24
The stock trades comfortably above the 200-day SMA ($217.13), signaling a robust long-term uptrend. However, it sits below the 50-day SMA ($299.47), indicating a recent struggle to reclaim short-term momentum.
RSI at 45.6 confirms a neutral stance, neither overbought nor oversold, while the MACD at 2.07 provides a tepid bullish signal. The ADX of 11.3 reveals a lack of strong trend direction, suggesting consolidation.
Price action currently respects the Value Area High ($312.06), acting as immediate overhead resistance. The Anchored VWAP from November 2025 at $236.06 remains a key support floor for institutional buyers.
Liquidity sweeps show active institutional interest, with a recent buy-side sweep at $299.24 confirming support at the 50-day SMA. Yet, the bearish FVG zone between $307.82 and $326.04 acts as a magnet for sellers.
Expect choppy price action until the market clears the earnings event, as volume remains 16% of the 20-day average.
π€ Will the upcoming earnings print break the $307-$326 bearish FVG, or send the stock back to test the $296 support?
β Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| TXN | Texas Instruments | 53.1x |
| ADI | Analog Devices | 48.2x |
| NXPI | NXP Semiconductors | 22.5x |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | 18.4x |
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $4.83B | $1.68 | +8.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.42B | $1.28 | -2.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.74B | $1.48 | +1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.45B | $1.41 | -0.5% |
Free cash flow reached $0.8B in the latest quarter, supporting the dividend yield despite heavy capital expenditure requirements.
Revenue growth shows signs of stabilization, though the company faces pressure to expand margins in a competitive analog market.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- Automotive Electrification π’ Upside Surprise β Increased semiconductor content per vehicle drives long-term demand.
- Industrial Automation π‘ Priced In β Factory efficiency upgrades boost analog chip orders.
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 81,515 |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 58,978 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRAIGHEAD MARTIN S | Director | 2026-05-28 | Sale | 10000 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 2.6% | 2.5 |
β Key Risk Factors
~$1.5B impact
~$10B impact
π€ Given the current macro environment, which risk poses a greater threat to TXN’s share price: valuation compression or industrial weakness?
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400.00 | $298.00 | $200.00 | 32 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | $320.00 | 2026-06-29 | Maintained |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | $280.00 | 2026-06-29 | Maintained |
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, though the mean target sits below the current share price.
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- Strong leadership in analog market share.
- Internal manufacturing capacity provides margin leverage.
π Base Case
Market consolidation continues within the $290-$310 range.
π» Bear Case
- High P/E multiple limits upside potential.
- Industrial end-market demand softens.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
Avoid new positions until the earnings event passes.
Wait for a post-earnings pullback to the $270-$290 zone.
Maintain current exposure; do not add at these levels.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: Why is the verdict WAIT despite strong technicals?
The upcoming earnings announcement on July 22 introduces significant volatility risk that outweighs current technical momentum.
Q: What is the key support level to watch?
The $296 level aligns with recent bullish FVG zones and represents a critical line for institutional defense.
Q: Is the dividend yield safe?
Yes, current free cash flow generation supports the payout, though capital expenditure remains a priority for the firm.
π New to these terms? P/E Ratio Β· Free Cash Flow Β· Insider Signals Β· Stop-Loss Β· RSI
π Want to verify if this analysis still holds?
π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investments carry risk.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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