Teradyne, Inc. (TER) $309.61
Teradyne is navigating a critical juncture, trading just off its 52-week highs with strong technical backing but limited immediate upside according to consensus. Is this a pause before a breakout, or a signal to stay on the sidelines?
52-wk High $344.92
π Investment Snapshot
- π° Teradyne trades at $309.61, commanding a $48.5B market cap in the semiconductor equipment space.
- π The latest quarter saw robust revenue of $1.08B and EPS of $1.63, reflecting strong operational performance.
- π A ‘Strong’ Technical Confluence Score of 90/100 indicates significant underlying technical support.
- π― Analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating, yet the average target of $315.76 implies only 2.0% upside.
TER currently trades near its 52-week high, exhibiting strong technical signals but limited immediate upside to the consensus target. The stock’s RSI of 58.0 indicates it is not oversold, preventing a high-conviction Buy at this level, despite the strong technical confluence score.
| π Entry Zone | $290 or below | π Stop-Loss | $280 |
| π Adjust If | Price breaks above $325 with at least 1.5x average volume, signaling a decisive move past recent bearish FVG zones. | ||
The Investment Case β Why Now?
Teradyne has delivered a remarkable 60% surge over the past three months, fueled by strong Q4 2025 revenue growth to $1.08B and solid EPS of $1.63. This performance underscores robust demand for its semiconductor test equipment and industrial automation solutions, positioning the company favorably within the technology sector.
However, the stock now faces a critical test: its current price of $309.61 offers only a modest 2.0% upside to the analyst consensus target of $315.76. This limited headroom, coupled with the stock trading above its 50-day moving average, suggests that much of the near-term upside may already be priced in, potentially leaving little room for error.
π€ With TER’s impressive 3-month run, are investors underestimating its future growth potential, or is the current consensus target a realistic ceiling for the near term?
π’ Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Teradyne, Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | TER / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Technology / Semiconductor Equipment & Materials |
| CEO | Greg Smith |
| Founded / HQ | 1960 / North Reading, MA |
π Price Action & Technicals
Inside VA
A recent buy-side sweep at $283.46 on March 30, 2026, signals institutional interest at lower levels, while sell-side sweeps at $312.62 and $307.8 on March 25, 2026, suggest profit-taking near current prices.
TER’s current price of $309.61 trades comfortably above both its 50-day ($294.44) and 200-day ($181.88) Simple Moving Averages, confirming a strong bullish trend over the medium and long term. The 50-day SMA now acts as a critical support level, which the stock has held firmly during recent pullbacks.
The RSI at 58.0 sits in neutral territory, avoiding overbought conditions despite the impressive 60% 3-month return. However, the MACD shows a slight bearish divergence, with the MACD line (2.24) dipping below its signal line (2.67), suggesting a potential loss of upward momentum. The ADX at 21.9, with -DI (25.5) slightly above +DI (22.4), further points to a consolidating or weakening trend.
The Anchored VWAP from April 2025, at $159.63, sits significantly below the current price, underscoring the substantial gains made over the past year. The Volume Profile’s Point of Control (POC) at $114.58 and Value Area (VA) extending up to $314.21 indicate that the current price is at the upper bound of recent heavy trading activity, suggesting potential resistance.
Volume is running well below average at 83% of its 20-day average, signaling a lack of strong conviction behind recent price movements. While a buy-side liquidity sweep at $283.46 provides a bullish signal for dips, the presence of two sell-side sweeps around $307-$312 indicates institutional distribution or profit-taking, confirming the current price as a zone of contention.
π€ Given the conflicting signals from MACD and ADX against the strong moving average support, is TER setting up for a deeper retracement or merely consolidating before another leg higher?
π° Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.08B | $1.63 | |
| Q3 2025 | $769M | $0.75 | |
| Q2 2025 | $652M | $0.49 | |
| Q1 2025 | $686M | $0.61 |
Teradyne generated a healthy $0.2B in Free Cash Flow in the latest quarter, demonstrating strong operational efficiency. The company also returned $0.2B to shareholders through buybacks, signaling confidence in its valuation and a commitment to shareholder value.
π Growth Drivers β What Moves the Stock
- Semiconductor Test Demand π’ Upside Surprise β The ongoing expansion of AI, 5G, and automotive electrification drives robust demand for advanced semiconductor testing solutions, directly benefiting Teradyne’s core business. The company’s market leadership in this segment positions it for continued revenue growth.
- Industrial Automation Expansion π‘ Priced In β Teradyne’s Universal Robots and Mobile Industrial Robots (MiR) segments capitalize on the accelerating adoption of automation across diverse industries. This diversification provides a strong growth vector beyond the cyclical semiconductor market.
π¦ Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 20,298 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 15,398 |
| State Street Corporation | 7,078 |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | 4,490 |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 4,203 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 4,163 |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 3,502 |
| Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC | 3,305 |
| Invesco Ltd. | 2,951 |
| Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | 2,816 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HENRY ANDREW CHISHOLM | Director | Mar 26, 2026 | Grant | 75 |
| HERWECK PETER | Director | Mar 26, 2026 | Grant | 92 |
| TUFANO PAUL J | Director | Mar 26, 2026 | Grant | 159 |
| JOHNSON MERCEDES | Director | Mar 5, 2026 | Grant | 625 |
| MILLS REGAN | Officer | Feb 25, 2026 | Grant | 788 |
| JOHNSON MERCEDES | Director | Feb 5, 2026 | Grant | 625 |
| DRISCOLL RYAN E | General Counsel | Feb 4, 2026 | Grant | 1784 |
| POULIN SHANNON JOHN | Officer | Feb 4, 2026 | Grant | 4460 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.0% | 1.8 |
β Key Risk Factors
~$10B impact
~$3B impact
~$4B impact
~$2B impact
π€ Considering the high dividend yield and recent buybacks, is Teradyne prioritizing shareholder returns over reinvestment in potentially higher-growth areas, and what are the long-term implications?
π― Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400.0 | $315.76 | $250.0 | 17 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | Outperform | Mar 2026 | Maintains | |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Citigroup | Buy | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Stifel | Buy | Feb 2026 | Maintains |
The analyst consensus for Teradyne remains a Buy, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects, yet the average price target of $315.76 offers only a modest 2.0% upside from current levels. This suggests analysts see limited near-term appreciation, despite the overwhelmingly positive ratings.
π Bull vs Bear β Probability-Weighted Scenarios
π Bull Case
- Strong demand for AI and advanced chip testing drives higher-than-expected revenue growth, exceeding current market forecasts.
- Successful expansion into new industrial automation markets provides significant diversification and reduces cyclicality risks, boosting overall valuation multiples.
π Base Case
Our base case assumes Teradyne continues to benefit from steady semiconductor demand and gradual expansion in its automation segments, aligning with current analyst expectations. We project continued revenue growth, but with margins facing some pressure from competitive dynamics and cyclical headwinds.
π» Bear Case
- A significant downturn in the semiconductor cycle or increased geopolitical tensions severely impacts order flow and revenue, leading to guidance cuts.
- Intensified competition or technological shifts erode market share and pricing power in core segments, compressing margins and hindering innovation.
π― Investor Action Plan β By Profile
Swing traders should avoid TER at current levels; the stock lacks the volatility and clear directional bias needed for short-term plays, with limited upside to consensus targets and mixed momentum signals.
Position investors should wait for a clear entry below $290, ideally on a retest of the 50-day SMA, before initiating a position. This offers a better risk-reward profile given the current limited upside and potential for consolidation.
Long-term investors already holding TER should hold their positions, as the underlying growth drivers in semiconductors and automation remain intact. Consider scaling into dips if the long-term thesis remains robust and aligns with your risk tolerance.
β Investor FAQ β People Also Ask
Q: Why is Teradyne’s dividend yield reported as 17.00%?
Teradyne’s reported 17.00% dividend yield is exceptionally high and likely reflects a special dividend or a yield on cost for long-term holders, rather than a sustainable forward yield. Investors should verify the nature of this dividend before making investment decisions, as such high yields are often not indicative of ongoing distributions.
Q: What does the ‘Strong’ Technical Confluence Score of 90/100 mean for TER?
The strong technical score indicates that multiple technical indicators, including VWAP, Volume Profile, and Liquidity Sweeps, are aligning to suggest underlying strength and potential support. However, this strength is currently offset by the stock trading above ideal entry zones and limited upside to analyst targets, leading to a ‘WAIT’ verdict for new entries.
Q: Is the recent 60% 3-month return sustainable for Teradyne?
While the 60% 3-month return is impressive, it suggests a significant portion of future growth may already be priced in. The current modest 2.0% upside to consensus targets and neutral RSI of 58.0 indicate that the pace of appreciation is likely to moderate, and a period of consolidation or pullback could ensue as the market digests these gains.
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π Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions. Stock prices are subject to market risks and can fluctuate significantly.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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