Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) $289.95
Cboe Global Markets, trading at $289.95, finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating mixed technical signals and a consensus target that implies limited immediate upside.
52-wk High $305.68
📌 Investment Snapshot
- 💰 CBOE trades at $289.95, commanding a $30.3B market cap with a 27.85x P/E ratio.
- 📈 The company delivered strong Q4 2025 results with $1.20B revenue and $2.97 EPS.
- 🔑 Consistent revenue growth and robust free cash flow underpin its fundamental strength.
- 🎯 Analysts maintain a ‘Hold’ consensus with a mean target of $287.38, suggesting slight downside.
CBOE’s price action currently sits at a crossroads, with neutral RSI and bearish MACD momentum conflicting with its position above key moving averages. The consensus target implies limited upside, failing to meet our ‘Buy’ criteria despite solid fundamentals.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $280 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $265 |
| 📋 Adjust If | CBOE reclaims $295 with at least 1.2x average volume, confirming a breakout from the current bearish FVG. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
Over the past 60-90 days, CBOE has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with its 3-month return up +15.8% even as the broader market navigated volatility. This performance underscores the demand for its diversified offerings, particularly in derivatives and market data.
However, the immediate technical picture presents a cautionary tale. Despite today’s +3.33% bounce, the stock has retreated -2.5% over the last month, and its current price sits within a bearish Fair Value Gap, signaling potential for further consolidation or a retracement. The MACD also confirms a bearish cross, indicating a loss of upward momentum.
🤔 Given the conflicting signals between CBOE’s strong fundamentals and its current technical weakness, how much weight should investors place on short-term price action versus long-term growth prospects?
🏢 Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Cboe Global Markets, Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | CBOE / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Financial Services / Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| CEO | Fredric J. Tomczyk |
| Founded / HQ | 1973 / Chicago, IL |
📈 Price Action & Technicals
Dead Cross
Outside VA
A buy-side sweep at $287.69 on March 11, 2026, followed by another at $279.05 on March 25, 2026.
CBOE’s current price of $289.95 trades above both its 50-day ($282.39) and 200-day ($253.99) Simple Moving Averages, typically signaling bullish strength. However, the stock’s volume today ran well below its 20-day average at 82%, casting doubt on the conviction behind this upward move.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.0 remains neutral, offering little directional bias. In contrast, the MACD registers a bearish cross, with its line at -0.84 falling below the signal line at -0.35, confirming a loss of short-term momentum. This divergence between price position and momentum indicators suggests underlying weakness.
The Anchored VWAP from April 2025 sits significantly lower at $247.56, while the Volume Profile’s Point of Control (POC) is even further down at $237.19. This indicates that the majority of trading activity and institutional accumulation occurred at much lower price levels, suggesting the current price is extended.
CBOE currently finds itself within a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $287.47 and $292.32, with another open bearish FVG extending to $297.55. These gaps often act as magnets for price, suggesting potential for either a fill and rejection or a move to fill the higher gap. The high ADX of 45.9, coupled with a dominant negative directional indicator (-DI at 24.9 vs +DI at 12.0), confirms a strong bearish trend is in play despite today’s positive price action.
🤔 How will CBOE’s price react to the open bearish FVGs, and what volume confirmation would be necessary to validate a move above these resistance levels?
⚖ Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| CBOE | Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 27.85x |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 28.5x |
| CME | CME Group Inc. | 27.0x |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 29.1x |
| S&P 500 | Index Average | 21.0x |
💰 Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | $1.20B | $2.97 | +10.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.14B | $2.85 | +8.7% |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.17B | $2.23 | +5.2% |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.20B | $2.37 | +7.8% |
CBOE generated a robust $0.3B in Free Cash Flow in its latest quarter, providing ample flexibility for strategic investments, share buybacks, or dividend increases. This strong cash generation capability underpins its financial stability and growth initiatives.
🚀 Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Derivatives Market Expansion 🟢 Upside Surprise — CBOE’s leadership in options and futures, particularly with its proprietary VIX index products, positions it to capitalize on increasing demand for hedging and speculative instruments in volatile markets.
- Global Market Data & Analytics 🟡 Priced In — The growing need for real-time market data and sophisticated analytics drives CBOE’s recurring revenue streams, offering a stable and high-margin business segment that continues to expand internationally.
- Digital Asset Integration 🟢 Upside Surprise — CBOE’s strategic moves into digital assets, including its acquisition of ErisX (now Cboe Digital), position it at the forefront of regulated crypto derivatives and spot trading, tapping into a nascent but high-growth market.
🤔 With CBOE’s strong position in derivatives and market data, how effectively can it translate its digital asset initiatives into meaningful revenue growth in the next 12-18 months?
🏦 Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 12,955 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 9,898 |
| Alliancebernstein L.P. | 6,566 |
| State Street Corporation | 4,978 |
| FMR, LLC | 4,351 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOMCZYK FREDRIC J. | Director | Feb 19, 2026 | Acquisition | 10,965 |
| ISAACSON CHRISTOPHER A | Chief Operating Officer | Feb 19, 2026 | Acquisition | 5,961 |
| GRIEBENOW JILL | Chief Financial Officer | Feb 19, 2026 | Acquisition | 4,600 |
| DONOHUE CRAIG STEVEN | Chief Executive Officer | Feb 19, 2026 | Acquisition | 4,683 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.0% | 2.9 |
⚠ Key Risk Factors
~5-10% revenue impact
~$0.5B revenue hit
~$1B+ reputational damage
~$0.1B income impact
🤔 Considering the persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential for increased regulatory pressure, how resilient are CBOE’s diversified revenue streams against these headwinds?
🎯 Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.0 | $287.38 | $246.0 | 13 | Hold |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Jan 2026 | Maintains | |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Jan 2026 | Maintains | |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Dec 2025 | Maintains |
The analyst community largely maintains a ‘Hold’ rating on CBOE, with the mean target price of $287.38 suggesting a slight downside from current levels. This indicates a cautious stance, reflecting a belief that the stock is fairly valued at its present price.
📊 Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
🐂 Bull Case
- Sustained high market volatility drives increased derivatives trading volumes, boosting CBOE’s core revenue.
- Successful expansion of Cboe Digital and other new initiatives captures significant market share in emerging asset classes.
📊 Base Case
Our base case anticipates CBOE continuing its steady growth trajectory, driven by consistent market data demand and moderate derivatives activity. The company’s diversified revenue streams provide resilience, but macroeconomic headwinds and competitive pressures cap significant upside from current levels. We project a fair value around the consensus target.
🐻 Bear Case
- A prolonged period of low market volatility significantly reduces trading volumes across all segments.
- Increased regulatory burdens or a major cybersecurity incident severely impacts operations and investor confidence.
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
Swing traders should avoid CBOE for now. The bearish MACD cross and presence within an FVG suggest potential for further downside. Wait for a clear break above $295 on heavy volume to consider long, or a break below $280 for short opportunities.
Position investors should wait for a more attractive entry. A pullback towards the SMA50 at $282.39 or even the top of the Value Area at $284.37 would offer a better risk/reward. Consider scaling in if CBOE tests $280 with strong buyer defense.
Long-term investors already holding CBOE should hold their positions. The fundamental thesis remains intact with consistent earnings and strong cash flow. Consider adding on significant dips, particularly if the stock approaches the Anchored VWAP at $247.56.
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: Why is the verdict ‘WAIT’ despite CBOE’s strong quarterly performance?
While CBOE’s fundamentals are robust, our ‘WAIT’ verdict stems from the current technical landscape. The RSI is neutral, the MACD shows bearish momentum, and the price is within a bearish Fair Value Gap. Furthermore, the consensus analyst target implies a slight downside, failing to meet our upside criteria for a ‘BUY’.
Q: What key technical levels should I watch for a potential entry?
For a more favorable entry, monitor CBOE around its 50-day SMA at $282.39 or the upper bound of the Volume Area at $284.37. A deeper pullback towards the Anchored VWAP at $247.56 would present a high-conviction dip, aligning with historical institutional accumulation levels.
Q: How do insider transactions and institutional holdings impact the outlook?
Recent insider acquisitions by key executives and directors in February 2026 signal confidence from within the company. Coupled with strong institutional ownership from major players like Vanguard and Blackrock, this indicates long-term conviction, even as short-term technicals suggest caution.
📊 How has the stock moved since this analysis?
📋 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data is as of April 05, 2026, unless otherwise stated.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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