Teradyne, Inc. (TER) $309.61
Teradyne has surged 60% in three months, but with the stock near its 52-week high and technicals flashing mixed signals, the smart money sits on its hands.
52-wk High $344.92
📌 Investment Snapshot
- 💰 Teradyne trades at $309.61, commanding a $48.5B market cap.
- 📈 Q4 2025 revenue hit $1.08B with EPS at $1.63, showing strong sequential growth.
- 🔑 Robust demand in semiconductor test and industrial automation drives recent performance.
- 🎯 Analysts hold a ‘Buy’ consensus with a $315.76 target, implying minimal upside.
Teradyne has experienced a remarkable 60% surge over the past three months, pushing its price near 52-week highs. However, the current RSI of 58.0 indicates the stock is not oversold, and its price sits above key support levels, failing to meet our strict ‘Buy’ entry criteria.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $295 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $270 |
| 📋 Adjust If | A sustained break above $345 on heavy volume would invalidate the ‘wait’ thesis, signaling a new leg up. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
Teradyne’s investment case hinges on its pivotal role in the semiconductor equipment sector, which has seen a resurgence in demand over the last 60-90 days. The company’s Q4 2025 results, with revenue jumping to $1.08 billion from $769 million in the prior quarter, underscore a significant operational turnaround and robust market tailwinds.
While the momentum is undeniable, the primary risk lies in the stock’s extended valuation following its rapid ascent. With the price already up 60% in three months and minimal upside to the consensus target, any slowdown in semiconductor capital expenditure or a broader market correction could trigger a sharp pullback, potentially erasing recent gains.
🤔 Given Teradyne’s aggressive rally, are you comfortable chasing this momentum, or does the limited upside to consensus suggest patience is the smarter play?
🏢 Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Teradyne, Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | TER / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Technology / Semiconductor Equipment & Materials |
| CEO | Greg Smith |
| Founded / HQ | 1961 / North Reading, MA |
📈 Price Action & Technicals
Dead Cross
Inside VA
A buy-side sweep at $283.46 on March 30, 2026, suggests institutional interest on pullbacks.
Teradyne’s price action reveals a powerful uptrend over the past three months, with the stock trading well above its SMA50 ($294.44) and significantly above its SMA200 ($181.88). This alignment confirms strong bullish momentum, yet the current price sits 10.2% below its 52-week high, indicating some recent consolidation.
The RSI at 58.0 signals neutral territory, but the MACD’s recent bearish cross (2.24 vs. signal 2.67) suggests a potential loss of short-term momentum. Adding to this caution, the ADX at 21.9, with the -DI (25.5) slightly above the +DI (22.4), points to weakening bullish trend strength and increasing bearish pressure.
The Anchored VWAP from April 2025 at $159.63 and the Volume Profile’s Point of Control at $114.58 are both substantially below the current price. This wide divergence underscores the strength of the recent rally, indicating that most volume has traded at much lower levels, which can make current prices vulnerable to profit-taking.
While the Bollinger Bands show the price within the upper band, the recent volume ratio at 0.83x average suggests waning conviction behind the current price action. The presence of multiple liquidity sweeps, including recent sell-side sweeps at $312.62 and $307.8, confirms active institutional positioning around these levels, but also hints at potential distribution.
🤔 With a strong technical confluence score of 90/100, yet individual indicators like MACD and ADX flashing caution, how do you weigh the overall bullish trend against the immediate warning signs?
⚖ Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| TER | This Stock | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | |
| LRCX | Lam Research | |
| KLAC | KLA Corp | |
| S&P 500 | Index Average | 21.0x |
💰 Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | $1.08B | $1.63 | |
| 2025-09-30 | $769M | $0.75 | |
| 2025-06-30 | $652M | $0.49 | |
| 2025-03-31 | $686M | $0.61 |
Teradyne generated a $0.2B in Free Cash Flow in the latest quarter, demonstrating strong operational efficiency. The company strategically deployed an equal $0.2B into share buybacks, signaling confidence in its valuation and commitment to shareholder returns.
🚀 Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Semiconductor Test Demand 🟢 Upside Surprise — The ongoing expansion of AI, 5G, and automotive electronics fuels robust demand for advanced semiconductor testing equipment, directly benefiting Teradyne’s core business.
- Industrial Automation & Robotics 🟡 Priced In — Teradyne’s Universal Robots and MiR divisions capitalize on the accelerating trend towards automation, with increasing adoption across diverse industries driving revenue growth.
- Strategic Acquisitions & R&D 🟢 Upside Surprise — Continuous investment in R&D and strategic acquisitions position Teradyne to capture emerging market opportunities and maintain its technological leadership.
🤔 Considering the strong tailwinds in semiconductor and automation, what specific market segment do you believe offers the most significant untapped growth potential for Teradyne in the next 12-18 months?
🏦 Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 20,298 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 15,398 |
| State Street Corporation | 7,078 |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | 4,490 |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 4,203 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 4,163 |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 3,502 |
| Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC | 3,305 |
| Invesco Ltd. | 2,951 |
| Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | 2,816 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HENRY ANDREW CHISHOLM | Director | Mar 26, 2026 | Purchase | 75 |
| HERWECK PETER | Director | Mar 26, 2026 | Purchase | 92 |
| TUFANO PAUL J | Director | Mar 26, 2026 | Purchase | 159 |
| JOHNSON MERCEDES | Director | Mar 05, 2026 | Purchase | 625 |
| MILLS REGAN | Officer | Feb 25, 2026 | Purchase | 788 |
| JOHNSON MERCEDES | Director | Feb 05, 2026 | Purchase | 625 |
| DRISCOLL RYAN E | General Counsel | Feb 04, 2026 | Purchase | 1,784 |
| POULIN SHANNON JOHN | Officer | Feb 04, 2026 | Purchase | 4,460 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.0% | 1.8 |
⚠ Key Risk Factors
Revenue decline >15%
Supply chain disruption
Margin compression
🎯 Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400.0 | $315.76 | $250.0 | 17 | Buy |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | Outperform | Mar 2026 | Maintains | |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Citigroup | Buy | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Stifel | Buy | Feb 2026 | Maintains |
The analyst consensus for Teradyne remains a strong 'Buy', reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects. However, the mean target of $315.76 offers only a marginal 1.99% upside from current levels, suggesting that much of the positive sentiment is already priced in.
📊 Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
🐂 Bull Case
- Accelerated adoption of AI and advanced computing drives higher demand for complex chip testing, boosting Teradyne’s core business.
- Expansion into new industrial automation markets and increased robot penetration rates lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth in its robotics division.
📊 Base Case
Our base case anticipates continued, albeit moderated, growth in semiconductor test demand, supported by ongoing technological advancements. The industrial automation segment will sustain steady growth, aligning with current market projections. This scenario implies a fair value reflecting the current consensus target.
🐻 Bear Case
- A sharper-than-expected downturn in the semiconductor cycle or a significant slowdown in global industrial production impacts capital expenditure and order volumes.
- Increased competitive pressures or unforeseen supply chain disruptions lead to market share losses and margin erosion in key product lines.
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
Swing traders should avoid TER at current levels. The stock is extended, and a bearish MACD cross suggests a potential short-term pullback. Look for a clear bounce off the SMA50 ($294.44) with increased volume before considering an entry.
Position investors should wait for a more favorable entry. A pullback to the $295-$300 range, aligning with the SMA50, would present a better risk-reward. Consider scaling in if the stock tests the bullish FVG zone around $255-$263.
Long-term investors already holding TER should hold their positions. The underlying secular trends in semiconductors and automation remain intact, but new allocations should await a significant dip or consolidation, ideally below $295, to improve cost basis.
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: Why is the dividend yield so high at 17%?
The reported dividend yield of 17.00% is exceptionally high and likely indicates a special dividend or a data anomaly. Investors should verify the regular quarterly dividend payout to understand the true recurring yield, as such a high yield is typically unsustainable for a growth-oriented tech company.
Q: What does the ‘Strong’ Technical Confluence Score of 90/100 imply, given the ‘Wait’ verdict?
The ‘Strong’ score reflects Teradyne’s robust long-term trend and price strength relative to key anchors like VWAP and Volume Profile POC. However, our ‘Wait’ verdict prioritizes ideal entry conditions, which require an oversold RSI and proximity to support. The score confirms underlying strength but not necessarily an immediate buying opportunity.
Q: Are the recent insider purchases a strong buy signal?
While recent insider purchases by directors and officers are generally positive, the individual share counts (mostly under 1,000 shares) are relatively small compared to the company’s market cap. They signal confidence but do not represent a significant capital commitment that would override other cautionary technical indicators.
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📋 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in securities involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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