FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS) $217.44
FactSet has roared back from its 52-week lows, but with earnings due today and key resistance overhead, this bounce demands careful scrutiny before making a move.
52-wk High $474.79
📌 Investment Snapshot
- 💰 FDS trades at $217.44, commanding an $8.1B market capitalization.
- 📈 Latest reported quarter (Q1 2026) saw revenue at $608M and EPS of $4.06.
- 🔑 A strong technical confluence score signals potential for a rebound from recent lows.
- 🎯 Analysts maintain a ‘Hold’ consensus with a $275.06 target, implying 26.5% upside.
FDS staged a significant bounce from its 52-week lows, pushing its RSI into approaching overbought territory after a steep 3-month decline. While recent institutional sweeps and a strong technical confluence score signal underlying strength, the stock now faces immediate resistance at its 50-day moving average and has earnings due today.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $200 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $190 |
| 📋 Adjust If | FDS closes above $220 with conviction, signaling a break above the 50-day SMA. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
FactSet’s stock endured a brutal period, shedding over 54% from its 52-week high and a quarter of its value in the last three months alone. However, the recent price action, including a strong 7.44% surge today, suggests a potential inflection point. Institutional buy-side sweeps near the $200-$203 range, coupled with a perfect 100/100 technical confluence score, underscore a compelling setup for a rebound.
Despite these positive technical signals, the stock’s immediate challenge lies in navigating significant overhead resistance and the uncertainty surrounding today’s earnings announcement. The current price sits just below the 50-day moving average, a level that has historically proven difficult to breach without strong conviction. Furthermore, two open bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) between $226 and $249 present formidable selling pressure zones.
🤔 Can FactSet’s underlying technical strength overcome immediate resistance and earnings uncertainty, or is this bounce merely a dead cat’s rally?
🏢 Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | FactSet Research Systems Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | FDS / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Financial Services / Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| CEO | |
| Founded / HQ |
📈 Price Action & Technicals
Golden Cross
Inside VA
Multiple buy-side sweeps observed at $201.67 and $203.37 on March 27, 2026.
FDS currently trades below both its 50-day ($219.93) and 200-day ($304.45) simple moving averages, signaling a persistent bearish trend on longer timeframes. The 50-day SMA now acts as immediate resistance, a crucial hurdle for any sustained upward movement.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.2 indicates the stock is approaching overbought conditions after its recent surge, suggesting the immediate upside might be limited. However, the MACD’s recent cross above its signal line, despite both being negative, points to short-term bullish momentum. The ADX at 30.0, with a dominant +DI, confirms a strengthening bullish trend in the short term.
Price action holds above the Anchored VWAP from the February 17th swing low ($206.51), a positive sign for recent buyers. Furthermore, the stock remains within the Volume Profile's Value Area ($194.13-$294.97), indicating price acceptance at current levels, though the Point of Control (POC) at $289.93 highlights significant overhead supply.
Volume today runs well below 20-day average at 67%, suggesting a lack of strong conviction behind the recent price jump. However, recent buy-side liquidity sweeps around the $201-$203 mark confirm institutional interest at lower prices. The stock now sits in the upper half of its Bollinger Bands, reflecting recent upward pressure.
⚖ Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | |
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc. | 35.2x |
| MSCI | MSCI Inc. | 40.1x |
| MORN | Morningstar, Inc. | 30.5x |
| S&P 500 | Index Average | 21.0x |
💰 Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | $608M | $4.06 | |
| 2025-08-31 | $597M | $4.03 | |
| 2025-05-31 | $586M | $3.87 | |
| 2025-02-28 | $571M | $3.76 |
FactSet generated $0.1B in Free Cash Flow in the latest quarter, demonstrating healthy operational efficiency. The company also deployed $0.1B towards share buybacks, signaling management’s confidence in intrinsic value and a commitment to shareholder returns.
🚀 Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Digital Transformation in Finance 🟢 Upside Surprise — The ongoing shift towards digital platforms and data-driven decision-making across the financial industry fuels demand for FactSet’s analytics and workflow solutions. This secular trend provides a consistent tailwind for revenue growth.
- AI & Machine Learning Integration 🟢 Upside Surprise — FactSet’s investment in AI and machine learning capabilities for predictive analytics and enhanced data insights could differentiate its offerings and attract new clients, potentially expanding its market share in a competitive landscape.
- Strategic Acquisitions & Partnerships 🟢 Upside Surprise — Targeted acquisitions of niche data providers or technology firms could broaden FactSet's product suite and client base, offering synergistic growth opportunities and strengthening its competitive moat.
🏦 Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 4,455 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 3,031 |
| BAMCO Inc. | 2,888 |
| State Street Corporation | 1,900 |
| LOOMIS SAYLES & CO L P | 1,495 |
| Ninety One UK Ltd | 1,194 |
| Wells Fargo & Company | 1,192 |
| Morgan Stanley | 1,120 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 1,058 |
| Citadel Advisors Llc | 868 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHOY SIEW KAI | Director | Jan 15, 2026 | Sale | 439 |
| TEJADA MARIA TERESA | Director | Jan 15, 2026 | Sale | 439 |
| WIESEL SHLOMO ELISHA | Director | Jan 15, 2026 | Sale | 571 |
| SHAVEL LEE M | Director | Jan 15, 2026 | Sale | 571 |
| EILAM BARAK | Director | Jan 15, 2026 | Sale | 439 |
| FRANK MALCOLM | Director | Jan 15, 2026 | Sale | 713 |
| ABRAMS ROBIN ANN | Director | Jan 15, 2026 | Sale | 604 |
| HYLTON LAURIE G | Director | Jan 15, 2026 | Sale | 439 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 3.3 |
⚠ Key Risk Factors
Broad market pressure
~5-10% revenue hit
Direct revenue impact
Delayed growth
🤔 Given the current macro headwinds and sector-specific competition, can FactSet maintain its historical growth trajectory, or will these factors cap its upside potential?
🎯 Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $425.0 | $275.06 | $195.0 | 16 | Hold |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Mar 2026 | Maintains | |
| Barclays | Underweight | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Feb 2026 | Maintains | |
| Evercore ISI Group | In-Line | Jan 2026 | Maintains | |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Dec 2025 | Maintains | |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Dec 2025 | Maintains |
Analyst sentiment for FDS remains largely neutral to cautious, with a consensus ‘Hold’ rating. Despite the mean target suggesting a 26.5% upside, several firms, including Goldman Sachs, maintain ‘Underweight’ or ‘Sell’ ratings, reflecting concerns about valuation or future growth prospects.
📊 Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
🐂 Bull Case
- Strong technical confluence score (100/100) and recent institutional buy-side sweeps signal robust underlying demand at lower price levels.
- Successful integration of AI/ML and strategic acquisitions could accelerate revenue growth and expand market share beyond current analyst expectations.
📊 Base Case
Our base case assumes FactSet continues to deliver steady, albeit moderated, revenue and EPS growth, navigating competitive pressures and macro headwinds. The stock consolidates around current levels post-earnings, gradually working towards the analyst consensus target as market sentiment improves.
🐻 Bear Case
- Failure to overcome 50-day SMA resistance and a negative earnings surprise could trigger further downside, retesting 52-week lows and potentially breaking below key support.
- Persistent high volatility (VIX > 30) and a prolonged downturn in financial markets could severely impact client spending, leading to revenue contraction and multiple compression.
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
Swing traders should avoid FDS until post-earnings clarity and a decisive break above $220. The current high RSI and immediate resistance present an unfavorable risk/reward for short-term plays.
Position investors should stay on the sidelines for now. A pullback towards the $200-$210 entry zone, ideally after earnings and with RSI cooling, would offer a more attractive entry with a stop below $190.
Long-term investors should wait for a clearer fundamental catalyst or a more significant dip. While the long-term thesis for financial data remains intact, current technicals and earnings uncertainty warrant patience before initiating or adding to a position.
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: Why is FactSet’s stock down so much from its 52-week high?
FDS has experienced a significant -54.2% decline from its 52-week high, largely due to broader market volatility (VIX at 30.61), sector-specific competitive pressures, and potentially a reassessment of growth prospects within the financial data industry.
Q: What do the recent buy-side sweeps indicate for FDS?
The recent buy-side liquidity sweeps at $201.67 and $203.37 on March 27, 2026, indicate institutional interest and accumulation at these lower price levels. This suggests that large players perceive value in FDS near its 52-week lows, potentially setting a floor for further declines.
Q: Should I be concerned about the high RSI given the strong technical confluence score?
Yes, the RSI at 62.2, while not yet overbought, suggests the stock has seen a rapid run-up and may be due for a pause or pullback. Despite the 100/100 technical confluence score, which points to overall strength, a high RSI combined with immediate resistance at the 50-day SMA and upcoming earnings warrants caution, as the immediate upside could be limited.
📊 How has the stock moved since this analysis?
📋 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in securities involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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