Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) $193.70
Texas Instruments finds itself at a critical juncture, trading just above its 200-day moving average as investors weigh a moderate technical confluence score against a lack of immediate bullish catalysts.
52-wk High $231.32
📌 Investment Snapshot
- 💰 TXN trades at $193.70, a 35.48x TTM P/E and 16.3% below its 52-week high.
- 📈 Latest quarter saw $4.42B revenue and $1.27 EPS, signaling a decline from prior quarters.
- 🔑 The stock currently sits between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating a neutral-to-bearish short-term trend.
- 🎯 Analysts maintain a ‘Hold’ consensus with a $221.55 target, suggesting 14.38% potential upside.
TXN’s price action signals a period of consolidation with bearish technical pressure despite a moderate confluence score. The stock trades above its long-term support but lacks the decisive momentum needed for a high-conviction entry.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $185.00 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $182.00 |
| 📋 Adjust If | A sustained break above the SMA50 ($205.71) on above-average volume, or a clear bullish liquidity sweep below current levels, would warrant re-evaluation. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
Texas Instruments has seen its shares retreat 7.7% over the past month, erasing some of its earlier 3-month gains. This recent weakness brings the stock to a critical juncture, testing the resilience of its long-term support levels.
The current price action reflects investor uncertainty regarding the pace of recovery in the broader semiconductor cycle, particularly in industrial and automotive end markets. While the company’s dividend yield remains attractive, the lack of strong growth catalysts in recent earnings reports keeps a lid on bullish sentiment.
A key risk that could further challenge the thesis is a prolonged inventory correction in its core markets. Should customers continue to destock, TXN’s revenue growth could remain subdued, impacting future earnings and potentially leading to further multiple compression.
🤔 Given the recent price decline, do you believe TXN’s current valuation adequately discounts a slower-than-expected recovery in its key end markets?
🏢 Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Texas Instruments Incorporated |
| Ticker / Exchange | TXN / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Technology / Semiconductors |
| CEO | Rich Templeton |
| Founded / HQ | 1930 / Dallas, Texas |
📈 Price Action & Technicals
Golden Cross
Inside VA
A sell-side sweep at $196.43 on March 25, 2026, indicates recent institutional distribution.
TXN’s price action shows short-term weakness, trading below its SMA50 ($205.71) but holding above its SMA200 ($188.25). This positioning suggests a neutral-to-bearish bias in the near term, as the stock struggles to reclaim its intermediate-term average.
The RSI at 53.4 sits firmly in neutral territory, offering no immediate oversold or overbought signals. However, the MACD shows a recent golden cross (MACD line above signal line), which typically signals bullish momentum, yet the MACD value itself is negative (-3.08), suggesting this cross occurred in bearish territory.
ADX at 36.1 indicates a strong trend, with the -DI (30.9) significantly higher than the +DI (18.9). This confirms bearish trend dominance, despite the MACD’s recent cross. The price is currently near the lower Bollinger Band, hinting at potential short-term support but also reflecting recent downside pressure.
The Anchored VWAP from April 2025 sits at $185.13, below the current price, suggesting that average institutional cost basis from that period is lower. The Volume Profile’s Point of Control (POC) at $178.8 further highlights a significant volume cluster well below current levels, indicating strong historical support if the price were to decline further. The recent sell-side sweep at $196.43 underscores institutional selling pressure near resistance.
The Technical Confluence Score of 70/100 is moderate, with strong support from VWAP, Volume Profile, and Liquidity Sweeps (20 points each). However, the ADX (10 points) suggests a dominant bearish trend, and the presence of multiple unfilled bearish FVGs (0 points) indicates potential downside targets if current support fails. This mixed technical picture reinforces a ‘WAIT’ posture.
🤔 With the MACD showing a golden cross but ADX indicating a strong bearish trend, which technical signal carries more weight for your short-term trading decisions on TXN?
⚖ Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| TXN | Texas Instruments | 35.48x |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | 65.2x |
| INTC | Intel Corp. | 28.1x |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Inc. | 22.5x |
| S&P 500 | Index Average | 21.0x |
💰 Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.42B | $1.27 | N/A |
| Q3 2025 | $4.74B | $1.48 | N/A |
| Q2 2025 | $4.45B | $1.41 | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | $4.07B | $1.28 | N/A |
Texas Instruments generated a robust $1.3B in Free Cash Flow in the latest quarter, demonstrating strong operational efficiency. The company deployed $0.4B towards share buybacks, signaling a commitment to returning capital to shareholders and supporting EPS.
🚀 Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Industrial & Automotive Demand 🟡 Priced In — TXN’s significant exposure to the industrial and automotive sectors positions it well for long-term growth as these markets increasingly adopt advanced analog and embedded processing solutions. This secular trend provides a stable demand base.
- Manufacturing Capacity Expansion 🟡 Priced In — Investments in new 300-mm fabs, like the upcoming Sherman fab, aim to boost internal manufacturing capacity and improve cost efficiency. This strategic move enhances supply chain control and supports future revenue growth.
- Analog & Embedded Leadership 🟡 Priced In — Texas Instruments maintains a dominant position in the analog and embedded processing markets, crucial for a wide array of electronic devices. This leadership provides a competitive moat and consistent revenue streams.
🏦 Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 96,527 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 79,040 |
| State Street Corporation | 43,446 |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 28,324 |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. | 24,288 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 22,865 |
| Invesco Ltd. | 18,184 |
| Wellington Management Group, LLP | 16,071 |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 15,813 |
| NORGES BANK | 14,505 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOZANIAN HAGOP H | Officer | Feb 17, 2026 | Sale | 6,843 |
| LIZARDI RAFAEL R | Chief Financial Officer | Feb 11, 2026 | Sale | 71,628 |
| GARY MARK | Officer | Feb 11, 2026 | Sale | 23,169 |
| BAHAI AHMAD | Officer | Feb 11, 2026 | Sale | 6,500 |
| GARY MARK | Officer | Feb 11, 2026 | Sale | 12,921 |
| BAHAI AHMAD | Officer | Feb 11, 2026 | Sale | 6,500 |
| LIZARDI RAFAEL R | Chief Financial Officer | Feb 10, 2026 | Sale | 64,532 |
| ROBERTS MARK T | Officer | Feb 09, 2026 | Sale | 4,461 |
Short Interest
| Short % Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.0% | 3.2 |
⚠ Key Risk Factors
~5-10% revenue hit
~10-15% EPS reduction
~5% revenue miss
~3% margin compression
🤔 With multiple bearish FVGs open and a dominant bearish trend indicated by ADX, what specific price level would signal to you that the downside risks are beginning to materialize for TXN?
🎯 Guidance & Wall Street View
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Analysts | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270.0 | $221.55 | $160.0 | 32 | Hold |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Feb 23, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Feb 05, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Jefferies | Hold | Jan 28, 2026 | Maintains | |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Jan 28, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Jan 28, 2026 | Maintains | |
| UBS | Buy | Jan 28, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Wells Fargo | Equal-Weight | Jan 28, 2026 | Maintains | |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Jan 28, 2026 | Maintains |
The analyst consensus leans towards a ‘Hold’, reflecting a cautious outlook with limited immediate upside. The mean target of $221.55 suggests a modest 14.38% return, indicating that most analysts see the stock as fairly valued at current levels.
📊 Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
🐂 Bull Case
- Faster-than-expected recovery in industrial and automotive end markets, driving stronger revenue growth.
- Successful execution of new 300-mm fab capacity leading to improved margins and market share gains.
📊 Base Case
Our base case assumes a gradual recovery in semiconductor demand through 2026, with TXN maintaining its market position and dividend. Revenue growth remains modest, and margins hold steady, justifying the current ‘Hold’ consensus. This implies a fair value around the analyst mean target.
🐻 Bear Case
- Prolonged inventory destocking and a deeper macroeconomic slowdown, severely impacting demand and revenue.
- Increased competition and pricing pressure eroding TXN’s profitability and market leadership.
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
Swing traders should avoid TXN for now. The mixed technical signals and dominant bearish trend make short-term directional bets risky. Wait for a clear break above $200 or a decisive retest of $185 with bullish volume confirmation.
Position investors should stay on the sidelines. While the stock is near its SMA200, the lack of strong catalysts and the presence of bearish FVGs suggest patience. Look for an entry window below $188, ideally closer to the Anchored VWAP at $185, to build a position.
Long-term investors should exercise caution. TXN’s dividend yield is attractive, but its valuation (35.48x P/E) is rich compared to the S&P 500. Consider scaling into a position only if the price dips closer to the Volume Profile POC at $178.8, offering a more compelling entry point for long-term conviction.
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: Why is TXN’s P/E ratio so high compared to the S&P 500 average?
TXN’s P/E of 35.48x significantly exceeds the S&P 500 average of 21x. This premium reflects its strong market position in stable industrial and automotive segments, consistent free cash flow generation, and a reliable dividend growth history, which investors often value higher than pure growth plays.
Q: What do the recent insider sales imply for TXN’s stock?
The recent insider transactions show multiple sales by officers in February 2026. While these could be routine exercises of stock options or tax-related sales, a pattern of selling, especially by key executives, often signals that insiders perceive the stock to be fully valued or that future growth prospects may be moderating.
Q: Is the dividend yield attractive enough to consider TXN now?
TXN’s 2.89% dividend yield is attractive compared to many tech peers and the broader market. However, a dividend alone does not constitute a buy signal. Given the current technical weakness and lack of strong immediate catalysts, investors should weigh the dividend against potential near-term capital depreciation and the opportunity cost of deploying capital elsewhere.
📊 Want to verify if this analysis still holds?
📋 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data is as of the date specified and subject to change.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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