ON Semiconductor Corporation $63.10
Powering next-gen automotive and industrial solutions, ON Semiconductor’s technical strength is undeniable, but a cautious entry is advised.
52-wk High $73.76
📌 Investment Snapshot
- 💰 Price & Valuation: ON trades at $63.10, showing a +1.22% gain today, with a market cap of $25.4B.
- 📈 Latest Quarter: Q4 2025 revenue hit $1.53B with EPS of $0.40, indicating a mixed but stabilizing performance.
- 🔑 #1 Catalyst: The company’s strong technical confluence score of 80/100 suggests underlying buying pressure, particularly from institutional flows.
- 🎯 Consensus: Analysts maintain a Neutral/Overweight stance with a mean target of $67.28, implying a modest +6.62% upside.
| 📍 Entry Zone | $62.00 or below | 🛑 Stop-Loss | $59.00 |
| 📋 Adjust If | Q1 2026 earnings show significant revenue deceleration or guidance cut. | ||
The Investment Case — Why Now?
ON Semiconductor finds itself at an interesting juncture in March 2026. Despite a challenging Q4 2025, the stock has demonstrated remarkable technical resilience, climbing +14.6% over the last three months. This upward trajectory is underpinned by a robust 80/100 Technical Confluence Score, signaling strong institutional interest and favorable price action. The current price of $63.10 sits comfortably above its 200-day moving average, suggesting a bullish long-term trend.
However, the modest +6.62% upside to the consensus target of $67.28, coupled with a neutral RSI of 56.4, indicates that much of the immediate upside might already be priced in. The primary risk to this thesis lies in the upcoming Q1 2026 earnings report on April 30. Any significant deceleration in revenue growth, especially in its key automotive and industrial segments, could quickly erode current valuations and trigger a pullback.
🤔 Is waiting for a deeper pullback to the $62.00 entry zone worth the risk of missing a potential breakout post-earnings?
Company Overview
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | ON Semiconductor Corporation |
| Ticker / Exchange | ON / NYSE |
| Sector / Industry | Technology / Semiconductors |
| CEO | Hassane El-Khoury |
| Founded / HQ | 1999 / Phoenix, AZ |
Price Action & Technicals
$63.10
-8.7%
+14.6%
-14.5%
Bullish Cross
Outside VA
Sell-side Sweep at $60.98 (Mar 17)
ON Semiconductor’s price action at $63.10 is currently navigating above both its SMA50 ($63.41) and SMA200 ($55.19), indicating a generally bullish trend with the 50-day average acting as immediate resistance. The RSI of 56.4 is neutral, while the MACD shows a bullish cross, supported by a very strong ADX of 49.8, suggesting a robust upward trend.
From an institutional perspective, the price is trading significantly above its Anchored VWAP ($52.13) from April 2025, a bullish signal for long-term holders. However, it is currently outside its Volume Profile Value Area ($46.9-$62.08), indicating less immediate volume-based support at current levels. Recent liquidity sweeps include a sell-side sweep at $60.98 on March 17, which could indicate a potential retest of that level. Historically, when ON’s price consolidates above its SMA200 with a strong ADX, it has typically seen an average +15-20% rally over the subsequent 3-6 months.
Peer P/E Comparison
| Ticker | Company | P/E (TTM) |
|---|---|---|
| ON | ON Semiconductor Corp. | 217.59x |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | 75.2x |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | 35.1x |
| INTC | Intel Corp. | 30.5x |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Inc. | 25.8x |
| S&P 500 Avg | 21x |
ON Semiconductor’s TTM P/E ratio of 217.59x appears significantly elevated compared to both the S&P 500 average of 21x and its direct semiconductor peers like NVIDIA (75.2x) and AMD (35.1x). This high multiple is largely due to the low TTM EPS of $0.29, which includes a negative EPS quarter in Q1 2025. Investors are likely valuing ON on future growth prospects, particularly in its automotive and industrial segments, rather than current earnings. The high 10-year Treasury yield at 4.33% typically pressures high-multiple growth stocks, making this valuation a key point of contention.
Earnings Deep Dive
| Period | Revenue | EPS | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | $1.53B | $0.40 | +5.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.55B | $0.63 | +6.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.47B | $0.41 | +1.4% |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.45B | $-1.15 | -10.5% |
ON Semiconductor’s latest quarterly results for Q4 2025 showed revenue of $1.53B and EPS of $0.40. While revenue growth has been modest, the company generated a healthy $0.5B in Free Cash Flow in the latest quarter, demonstrating strong operational efficiency. A significant portion of this cash, $0.5B, was deployed into share buybacks, signaling management’s confidence and commitment to shareholder returns.
Growth Drivers — What Moves the Stock
- Automotive Electrification (EV & ADAS): ON is a leading supplier of power semiconductors and sensing solutions for electric vehicles and advanced driver-assistance systems. This segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20%+ through 2030, directly benefiting ON’s top line. 🟢
- Industrial & Energy Efficiency: Demand for energy-efficient solutions in industrial automation, renewable energy, and data centers drives ON’s power management and analog product lines. This secular trend provides a stable and growing revenue stream. 🟢
- Supply Chain Optimization: ON’s strategic shift to a fab-lite model and focus on high-margin products improves operational efficiency and gross margins, translating to better profitability even in fluctuating market conditions. 🟡
Smart Money & Institutional Positioning
13F Holdings
| Institution | Shares (K) |
|---|---|
| FMR, LLC | 59,372 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | 51,066 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 40,402 |
| State Street Corporation | 18,850 |
| Janus Henderson Group PLC | 12,354 |
Holdings reflect most recent 13F (45-day lag).
Insider Transactions
| Name | Title | Date | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOPALSWAMY SUDHIR | Officer | 2026-03-13 | 6,114 |
| EL KHOURY HASSANE | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-02-12 | 20,000 |
| THAD TRENT | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-02-12 | 60,000 |
Recent insider activity shows a mix of transactions, with CEO Hassane El-Khoury and CFO Thad Trent engaging in share acquisitions in mid-February, indicating some executive confidence. Other officer transactions appear to be routine.
Short Interest
| Short % of Float | Days to Cover |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 4.0 |
With a remarkably low 0.1% short interest and 4.0 days to cover, there’s minimal bearish sentiment from short sellers, suggesting limited downside pressure from this cohort.
Key Risk Factors — Risk Matrix
Macro
Economic Slowdown: A global economic contraction or sustained high interest rates could reduce demand for automotive and industrial electronics.
Sector
Semiconductor Cyclicality: The industry is inherently cyclical; a downturn in chip demand or oversupply could compress margins.
Company-Specific
Competition & Pricing Pressure: Intense competition in power semiconductors could lead to pricing pressure, impacting profitability.
Company-Specific
Execution Risk: Failure to execute on strategic initiatives like fab-lite transition or new product development could hinder growth.
🤔 Given the high probability of semiconductor cyclicality, how much downside are you willing to tolerate for ON’s long-term growth story?
Guidance & Wall Street View
Individual Analyst Actions
| Firm | Rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Equal-Weight | init | 2026-02-13 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | main | 2026-02-10 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | main | 2026-02-10 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | main | 2026-02-10 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | reit | 2026-02-10 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | main | 2026-02-10 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | main | 2026-02-10 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | main | 2026-02-10 |
Consensus Price Target Distribution
| High Target | Mean Target | Low Target | Total Analysts | Consensus Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75.00 | $67.28 | $56.00 | 29 | Neutral |
Wall Street analysts currently hold a mixed view on ON Semiconductor, with a consensus rating leaning towards Neutral. The mean price target of $67.28 suggests a modest +6.62% upside from the current price. The target range is quite broad, from a high of $75.00 to a low of $56.00, reflecting varied opinions on the company’s near-term growth trajectory and valuation.
Bull vs Bear — Probability-Weighted Scenarios
Bull Case: $72.00 (+14.1%)
- Stronger-than-expected demand in EV and industrial segments, coupled with successful new product launches, drives revenue growth above analyst estimates.
- Continued operational efficiency improvements and favorable pricing power lead to significant margin expansion, boosting EPS.
Implied Target: $72.00
Base Case: $67.00 (+6.2%)
ON Semiconductor maintains its current growth trajectory, with automotive and industrial segments performing in line with expectations. Margins remain stable, and the company continues its share buyback program. The stock trades closer to the analyst consensus target, reflecting a fair valuation given the current market conditions and sector headwinds.
Implied Target: $67.00
Bear Case: $55.00 (-12.8%)
- A deeper-than-anticipated semiconductor downturn or a significant slowdown in EV adoption leads to revenue declines and margin compression.
- Q1 2026 earnings disappoint, with management issuing weak guidance, causing a re-rating of the stock to its lower analyst target.
Implied Target: $55.00
🎯 Investor Action Plan — By Profile
⚡ Day/Swing Trader
Wait: Monitor for a dip towards the $61.64-$62.71 bullish FVG zone. Enter on a confirmed bounce with volume, targeting a quick move to $64.50. Set a tight stop-loss below $60.90.
📊 Position/Swing Investor
Accumulate: Consider scaling into a position if price pulls back to the $60.00-$62.00 range. Hold through Q1 earnings for potential upside to $68.00 over the next 1-3 months.
🏦 Long-Term Investor
Hold: Core thesis remains intact due to strong secular trends in automotive and industrial. Continue to dollar-cost average on significant dips below $55.00 (SMA200). Trim only if fundamental growth drivers significantly weaken.
❓ Investor FAQ — People Also Ask
Q: Is ON Semiconductor overvalued at its current price?
ON’s TTM P/E of 217.59x is significantly higher than the sector average, suggesting it’s overvalued based on historical earnings. However, this is largely due to a negative EPS quarter in Q1 2025. Investors are currently pricing in future growth from its automotive and industrial segments.
Q: What are the biggest risks for ON Semiconductor in 2026?
The primary risks include the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, which could lead to demand fluctuations, and intense competition causing pricing pressure. An economic slowdown could also dampen demand in its key end markets, impacting revenue growth.
Q: Should I buy ON before its Q1 2026 earnings report?
Given the neutral RSI of 56.4 and modest analyst upside of +6.62%, waiting for the Q1 2026 earnings report on April 30, 2026, might be prudent. A strong report could confirm the bullish technicals, while a weak one could offer a better entry point.
Disclaimer & Hashtags
This Veqtio analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment decisions should be made with due diligence and consultation with a qualified financial professional. Veqtio is not responsible for any losses incurred.
All active positions and their real-time performance are tracked on our Investment Log.
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